USDCAD Short Setup

There are two Scenarios, which could happen next to USDCAD.

First scenario (black arrows):
It seems, that USDCAD is building a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder formation, which is
indicating a reversal of the uptrend at the moment.
If thats the case, I am looking for fullfilment of the S-H-S formation and
try to enter a short position, when a retest of neckline occurs.

Second scenario (red arrows):
Here we can see that, USDCAD might go higher to retest the long going uptrend
line. People could get tricked by the S-H-S formation to fill early short order´s.
Thats why i am waiting for a fullfillment of the S-H-S formation + a retest of the neckline,
in that case. Gold is looking weak right now and is struggling to break higher at the moment.
Gold´s weakness could lead to a push of the USD, so we could see USDCAD going higher to my
sell zone near the long going uptrend line.

I am favoring the second scenario with the red arrows, because of the confluence with Gold´s
weakness.

All in all, my main bias on USDCAD is bearish, that´s why im looking for shorts and not for long Setups.

Good Luck!