Key Week: Trump takes office and Davos kicks off

This week, two events dominate global attention: the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States and the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Both promise to set the political and economic agenda for the coming months, with significant implications for financial markets and international relations. Both scenarios promise to generate volatility due to the implications they have, whether for the first executive orders of the new U.S. administration or for statements by world leaders in Switzerland.

Trump and His First Mandates: A Full-Speed Start
The presidential takeover in the United States was formalized yesterday with the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House. In a start marked by immediate action, the president signed more than 200 executive orders, underscoring his intention to swiftly execute his policy agenda. These initial measures cover areas such as the economy, trade, energy and immigration, and are designed to fulfill the promises that marked his presidential campaign. Notable measures include halting regulations in the energy sector designed to encourage domestic oil and gas production, and initiating the renegotiation of key trade agreements aimed at strengthening the competitiveness of the U.S. economy. These actions underscore the “America First” approach, seeking to reposition the United States as a global leader under new trade conditions.
However, these decisions have generated mixed reactions both at home and abroad. While his supporters interpret them as a firm fulfillment of his campaign promises and strong leadership, while the more critical ones warn about the possible repercussions on the global economic balance and international diplomatic relations.

Davos Forum: A Platform for Global Dialogue
Simultaneously, in Switzerland, the World Economic Forum kicked off in Davos, an annual event that brings together political, business and social leaders from around the world, held this year under the theme “Collaboration in a Fragmented World.” This year, the forum is marked by a global context of uncertainty. Political, business and social leaders are gathering to discuss crucial issues such as sustainability, energy transition and digital transformation. Trump's initial prominence has generated uncertainty in the discussions overshadowing part of the agenda. Leaders from Europe, Asia and Latin America are adjusting their strategies to face possible changes in trade and global diplomacy in the face of the possible implications of U.S. policies. Of particular note are the expected interventions of Chinese President Xi Jinping and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who are seeking to position their regions in the face of the new U.S. approach.
The forum reflects an urgent need for international cooperation at a time when political and economic tensions challenge the global order. However, concrete responses will depend on the ability of leaders to coordinate actions in the face of common challenges.

Market Impact: Volatility and Mixed Expectations
Markets have reacted with mixed movements to the confluence of Trump's mandate and the start of the Davos Forum. In the United States, sectors such as banking and energy have shown significant gains, driven by expectations of deregulation and economic stimulus from the new administration.
On the other hand, US Treasury bonds recorded slight declines, reflecting greater risk aversion among investors in the face of political uncertainty. In Europe, stock markets have shown a stronger performance, with value markets leading the rally in more traditional equities, outperforming their US peers, while in Asia, indices have maintained a cautious tone. Commodities have also been strong performers, especially oil, which is up 1.7% on expectations of increased global demand. Agricultural products, such as corn, have also strengthened, anticipating possible imbalances in the global economic cycle. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is at a critical point within a bearish channel. A breakout to the upside could mark a shift to a more optimistic trend, although sentiment indicators remain ambiguous: while retail investors show extreme enthusiasm, other general confidence indices point to a more conservative approach.

Europe as a Strategic Haven
Although the outlook remains fraught with uncertainty, Europe presents itself as an attractive option in the near term, especially with the optimism surrounding its value markets. As global leaders set the economic tone in Davos and U.S. policies take shape, investors should keep an eye on key indicators and technical movements in the major indices. As leaders in Davos set the tone for 2025 and the Trump administration moves forward with its policies, investors should keep an eye on key indicators and technical signals in the major indices. It will undoubtedly be a week loaded with information and events that will test the markets' ability to adapt to an ever-changing environment.

Conclusion
The week is marked by two events of major global significance: the start of Donald Trump's term in office and the Davos Economic Forum. Both have set in motion dynamics that could define the course of politics and the global economy in 2025. As markets navigate between volatility and expectation they face a week loaded with crucial information and events, the focus will be on how these developments will impact international relations and the outlook for economic growth globally. The challenge will be to adapt to a constantly changing environment, balancing risks and opportunities in an increasingly complex global scenario.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades







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