US100 Breakout Incoming

US-500 Analysis

Weekly Chart Overview
• Trend: The US-500 is firmly in an uptrend, trading within a larger ascending channel since July. Price action continues to respect this channel, with the most recent weekly candle forming a bullish engulfing pattern off a key Fibonacci retracement level.
• Volume Profile: Price remains in a medium-volume zone, with the weekly POC at 5,562, marking a critical level of interest for institutional participation.
• Indicators:
• EMAs: All EMAs are aligned upward with significant spacing, highlighting the strength of the current trend.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price is well above the weekly cloud, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD: RSI has climbed from 53 to 59, aligning with the recent bounce, while MACD shows waning bearish momentum, supporting a potential continuation of the uptrend.
• Fibonacci Insights:
• The retracement from the 5th August to 2nd December wave suggests the 0.236 level played a role in the recent bounce, indicating that the current higher-low formation aligns with broader trend dynamics.
• Using the breakout point from 9th September, the 38.2% retracement level aligns precisely with the recent reversal, providing additional confluence.

Daily Chart Overview
• Trend: On the daily chart, price action has been in a consolidation phase since breaking below an ascending channel on 17th December. However, the price has repeatedly bounced off a daily order block at 5,874 to 5,828, establishing a robust support zone.
• Key Developments:
• Recent price action shows a breakout above the daily POC at 5,919, with the price now above the 20 EMA and 50 EMA.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is within the upper band, signaling renewed strength.
• Fibonacci Insights:
• The bounce aligns with the 0.786 retracement level, suggesting the potential formation of a higher-low structure, which is often a precursor to trend continuation.
• Fibonacci retracements and extensions provide insights into market liquidity levels, where institutional activity is likely to cluster.
• Indicators:
• RSI is back above 50, confirming a shift in momentum.
• MACD has turned green, and CMF is positive at 0.03.
• ADX at 30.57 shows a weakening bearish trend, while DI lines converge, indicating diminishing bearish pressure.

4-Hour Chart Overview
• Trend: Price action recently broke out of a descending wedge, which had been characterized by lower-lows and lower-highs during the consolidation phase. This breakout aligns with bullish sentiment seen on higher timeframes.
• Key Levels:
• Price is testing a daily order block, showing initial rejection, with potential for short-term retracement.
• Fibonacci extensions reveal the move has reached a 100% retracement of the previous downtrend, a critical level for monitoring potential liquidity grabs.
• Indicators:
• RSI is at 67.93, nearing overbought territory, suggesting possible short-term exhaustion.
• MACD remains above zero, though bullish momentum is waning.
• CMF is increasing at 0.16, signaling accumulation.

Exclusive Indicator Insights

Our custom indicators provide a critical edge in identifying key zones:
• Weekly Buy Region: The first green bar since consolidation appeared last week, signaling a shift in sentiment and potential alignment with broader bullish momentum.
• Daily Buy Region: Currently unshaded, reflecting a lack of confirmation on the daily timeframe, underscoring the importance of higher timeframe alignment.

Summary and Outlook
• Weekly Chart: The higher-low formation, supported by Fibonacci retracements and a bullish engulfing candle, points to strong bullish momentum.
• Daily Chart: The breakout above the POC and key EMAs signals a potential end to the consolidation phase, with order blocks and retracements offering critical areas to monitor.
• 4-Hour Chart: While the breakout is promising, near-term corrections are possible as the RSI approaches overbought levels and momentum wanes.

Stay Tuned

Our exclusive indicators, particularly the Weekly Buy Region and Daily Buy Region, are designed to highlight actionable zones with precision, making them invaluable tools for indices like the US-500. Stay connected to our Minds channel and follow our ideas to gain access to specific entries and further updates as we refine our setups.