S&P500 This trend-line separates bull from more pain.

31 Eki 2023

The S&P500 index had a green session yesterday as the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the Channel Down and seems to be rebounding. Technically that is the bullish leg towards the new Lower High, with the previous being priced on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).

This Channel Down however, on a 1D RSI basis as well, resembles the August - October 2022 pattern. Both corrections have almost 1 year between them. If the long-term structure that connects them is a Channel Up, then there is more selling ahead, with the potential Support/ long-term Accumulation level being on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). In October 2022, that level was continuously tested for 2 weeks in a row and held.

The bottom of that Channel Down was confirmed after the 4H MA150 (green trend-line) broke to the upside. As a result, a fair guess would be to buy if a break-out above the 4H MA150 (now at 4275) takes place again. If it does, we will buy again and target the standard +20% medium-term rise within this 12 month span (happened 3 times) aiming at 4930 (would make a new All Time High). If the index stays below the 4H MA150, we will wait until the price bounces off the 1W MA200 and buy with 4740 as the target.

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