YIELD CURVE FORECASTING TOOL

2 Kas 2018

When the yield curve has inverted for a quarter, that means longer term interest rates on average are lower than shorter term interest rates. This predicts that a recession will follow.

- Campbell Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University

[When red line is below orange line]

2 Kas 2018

Not

"There's a warning sign for the economy with an amazing track record: The last five times it flashed, the U.S. economy went into recession within about a year.

This economic crystal ball takes the views of people and institutions from from all around the world and boils them down into a single, simple signal."

npr.org/sections/money/2018/07/09/627432984/the-recession-predictor-still-predictive