Dow Jones: A Make-or-Break Buy Setup with Smart Money Backing

11 Mar

Dow Jones Industrial Average - Buy Setup

Technical: U.S. markets have struggled recently due to uncertainty over tariffs imposed by President Trump. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have broken key support levels, the Dow remains resilient, holding the critical 41,648 support. A break below would confirm a large double-top pattern, signaling a bearish outlook. This is a pivotal moment. The rebound from overnight lows is encouraging, but with the U.S. CPI release tomorrow, caution is warranted. While speculative, COT and seasonal data favour a short-term move higher.

Fundamental: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increasing long interest in the Dow, suggesting "smart money" accumulation.

Seasonal: Historically, from March 12 – May 2, the Dow has posted gains 84% of the time, averaging +3.68% over the past 25 years.

Setup:

• Entry: 41,800 – 42,000
  
• Stop Loss: 41,285 (below the Nov 2024 low at 41,648)
  
• Target: 44,290
  

Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.

11 Mar

İşlem aktif

OK, so its currently looking like break, rather than make.

A close below 41648 today completes a double top formation, which implies a downside target of 38452!