A bond market rally is now clear

15 May

After rising inside a channel, the US 10-year bond yields are breaking the rising channel for wave B on the downside. This confirms the start of wave C down for bond yields. In terms of levels, it means eventually going back to maybe 3% in the US 10-year note, as wave C will break the neckline at 3.8%. So this will be a multi-month decline in bond yields, resulting in a long bond rally. We broke the rising channel at 4.45% so that is the key resistance here.