Macro - US10Y Cup & Handle

Idea for US10Y:
- Cup and Handle with bull flag.
- TP1: 2.8

Interesting stat: since 1985, 10Y yields have never been below 4% with a 3% Core CPI y/y%

GLHF
- DPT

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Fed Reverse Repurchase Agreements at an ATH and climbing. It is clear that Tapering is in full force.

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Thought about this, it could actually go the other way. Downtrend since 2008:

COVID crash:

We might get a deflationary shock event and investors will sell off equities for bonds during the panic. before the Fed tries to further inflate the deflation away.

Either situation is quite good for the long vol trade

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Expected the deflation in Chinese bond yields, but I had initially thought that US yields would have a spike first. US may simply follow China into economic deflation.