Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?

18 Kas 2022

The famous negative curve.

This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen?

The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system.

Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds.

The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms.

So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower.

In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead.

According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967.

There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries.

But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices.

This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.

9 Ara 2022

Not

clear signs of recession


This drop in oil pricing is directly linked to the market's anticipation of the economic slowdown.

15 Ağu

Not

We are very close to seeing the yield curve return to normal. While the curve remained inverted, we did not have such an imminent problem. However, history shows that the moment of alert is when the yield curve returns to normal, that is, 10-year bonds paying more than 2-year bonds.

Attention, we are close to a major change in the yield curve. Do not ignore history! Be prepared for all scenarios.