US10Y & DXY downward trend continues. US10Y 4% triggers DXY 96.

US10Y has been in a downward trend despite of US Fed holding the rates stable. In this blog space I have been following the downward sloping channel since Jan 2025. Since our May 2 prediction of a 4% in %US10Y we are very much on that glide path to lower low.

US10Y making new lows. 4% upcoming. 3.5% target low. for TVC:US10Y by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView

And then we add DXY into the mix which is also making lower lows and lower highs. I had a near term target of 96 on DXY and 90 by year end. This seems unreasonable now. I must change my outlook, when the charts change.

As we see, whenever DXY touches the lower bound of the downward slopping channel it tends to rebound to the mid-point of the channel. If it does so, then we might see a 100 on DXY Before we plunge down to 96 or lower.

Hence, I revise my prediction to be bullish on DXY, but that will have no impact on US10Y which is headed lower due to Fed cutting cycle and probably higher DXY dampening inflation.
Verdict: Revise our prediction: Short term bullish on DXY. Long term bearish. Key levels: DXY to 100 first then 96. US10Y remains bearish with 4% by Dec 2025.