Bearish on DXY

10 Haz 2024

This week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone.

Let's see what happens . . .

If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for this year. I believe we can expect the yellow scenario. Otherwise, we can expect the red scenario happens in short term.

12 Haz 2024

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

The CPI number came lower than expected and it strengthen the rate cut expectations by the US Fed. As a result the DXY and US10Y had a sharp decline and DXY is showing that it wants to follow the yellow scenario.

Let's see what does the FOMC meeting have for us . . .
We can expect a dovish tone in FOMC meeting today. At the time of writing this update the market sees a 60% chance of the first rate cut this September.