US100/NASDAQ; The Reality Of The Long Term Market

27 Ağu 2023

I just finished a market runover for my Academy Members and thought I'd run over a chart before we start Mondays Trading Session. This chart is an important one on the global scale and is going to be a front-runner in many investors portfolios.

I've made this post an important asset and one that lots of traders ask me about on my streams and also privately, some because they want to trade with leveraged funds and some because they have stock holdings within the index and are speculating for future or current investments that they are figuring out.

Alike the SPX the US100 can tell you an awful lot just by looking at it from a Technical basis, if you know what you are looking for. Technical analysis is simply looking at charts to get a bias on what you think a market will do in terms of a change or continued market trajectory. It helps you read between the lines on what is going on behind the scenes and often tells you more than the fundamental side of your analysis tells you.

You will find that Traders will put so much emphasis on the Fundamental side, which of course is important, but there is also a lot to be said from a Technical side, that being just a simple look at Price over time and relying on what works factually and what has always been the case.

How many times have you seen a tradeable asset rally and rally until it eventually stops, stalls and falls? Why do you think this happens? Why do you think people trade it?

You can see the previous fall only took the market so far and it was not followed by a sustained down move, rather a sustained up move immediately. It did not take long for Markets to decide the fall was enough and to rally back up. But what fundamentally is actually any better than before?

I previously called this Market short before it fell on this post as we had an extreme rally and were looking to join short side traders:

This led the market to fall to where we are now, sustained with poor sentiment and Market weakness we are seeing now. Although you can tell a lot of the reasons why from Fundamental aspects, such as suspected potential weakness in US Markets over time, if you simply swap your Chart Timeframes to something like the 12M you can see how far price has gone in a relatively short amount of time.

Normally, on assets where you experience such a fast price move, you are going to be followed by a sustained fall. This is just simple Market Economics, much like you saw on Bitcoin. Eventually, price gets to a point where people want to sell it and it comes down. The faster this rise, often the faster the following fall as you have less support to crash into and price is less justifiable at such a price.

Rallies can only last so long and the sentiment behind them is the same. You cannot have positive market sentiment forever, eventually it will flip over and you will find you get a fall. This is equally demonstrated by Price Action on charts and does not require ONLY a Fundamental basis or bias to make a justified entry or approach.

I also displayed this here:

This was just before the positive market sentiment causing the US100 to rally ended, which was a time bomb. This is also similar to what you are seeing now across the community of traders on NVIDIA. An increase is price too quickly over a short period of time, which too can be seen simply by looking at a chart.

So In short, just remember you do not need to glue your eyes to news to make a justification of your trade. Sometimes (a lot of the time) if you can notice price is just way too high over a short period of time, you can be relatively sure that it is going to be followed by a larger fall as traders rapidly change their bias.

Use a higher TimeFrame / Chart to determine this as it shows you the long term market and gives you a better idea of how fast price has risen over time and never ignore it. Fundamental aspects are always reflected inside Technical aspects because the only way you can show what is happening price wise to any asset is to look at price accordingly. It is a measure of how harsh the sentiment is in either direction at any time.

Currently, you can see price rejection on such higher timeframes as we RE-approached where the market had fallen before. This is no coincidence, but simply Traders noticing we are approaching a short zone where the market has previously fallen before.

I am maintaining my short bias on the US100 and will look to trade the natural market move as it forms. This will be mostly taken from a Technical basis and will rely on the Facts presented by Tech Analysis.

27 Ağu 2023

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Looking short on rises into Monday Session.

27 Ağu 2023

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PS. Its a good idea to watch the ideas tagged. Explains a lot verbally :)

28 Ağu 2023

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Short bias remains into this coming week.

29 Ağu 2023

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Market rising back to Prev Resistance. Use areas noted on tagged ideas.

29 Ağu 2023

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Re shorts now.

30 Ağu 2023

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Holding shorts, news approaching this week.

31 Ağu 2023

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Lots of US news coming. Keep eyes on it and manage positions carefully.

1 Eyl 2023

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Bracing for US news. Holding short bias.

4 Eyl 2023

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Still holding short bias amongst this weeks trading.

6 Eyl 2023

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Holding similar bias to s&P

8 Eyl 2023

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Still short.