The Bond Dilemma

30 Kas 2023

This is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential milestone for a scenario in which in case it is hit, and only in this scenario, a pivot point might be expected at the marked time stamp. The marked price level is also relevant in case a correction is formed near it, leading to a potential end of it, with a candlestick potential reversal pattern that can signal an opportunity to jump on the action of the next wave.

We use Japanese Candlesticks in our analysis to compute the tendencies of the market, the sentiment, the overall context of each wave, but also to assess any potential weakness in a wave (useful and required for position management), or a complete reversal.

While the obvious scenarios in which a turnaround can occur at the upper rectangle, a bounce from the red one, or an incursion towards the big green one, might sound appealing to us, we must also not limit ourselves to such scenarios and keep an open mind for any other opportunities signaled by the candlestick analysis, and the overall context of the flows and events in the market.

As usual, this project will be followed by short updates for milestones, highlights, or potential red alert scenarios (pivot points or reversals). Trade with care, and may the force of profits be with you!

8 Ara 2023

Not

A hit on the first dot. This down move might not reach the blue line before a pivot point occurs and an attempt for a continuation of the previous bullish sentiment.

12 Ara 2023

Not

Two small candlestick shadows signaling support and potential reversal sentiment. No big momentum on the bullish attempt. One possible scenario for the near future is a consolidation period.

18 Ara 2023

Not

Interesting formation of candles at the top of the bull wave. This could be a turning point at the time stamp of the second dot.

19 Ara 2023

Not

The mentioned candlestick formation could turn into just a consolidation period.

2 Oca

Not

Resistance with a rebound met at the top of the rectangle.

17 Oca

Not

Touchdown on the orange. Let's see if there is a small timid correction towards the marked time stamp and an inflection point around there...

31 Oca

Not

No stop at the time stamp which was a longer bullish candle to continue the turnaround sentiment that started building up around the orange rectangle which proved to be an inflection point zone. Added some more elements for the end of the project although I doubt we will see the white ellipse being touched in its time zone.

6 Şub

Not

This candle under the red rectangle looks good for a potential pivot point if it remains about the same until close.

13 Şub

Not

Touchdown on the green.

26 Şub

Not

There is no definite clear candlestick pattern or setup here to catch the eye, after the "consolidation" and reduced volatility at the top edge of the big green rectangle. Nevertheless, my bias is towards an incursion up to the 99 level.

11 Mar

Not

The 99 was reached and the 3 dots sequence is probably just a lucky shot. A small retracement scenario would not be so bad if a nice entry signal would occur, especially as I can't shake off the long bias for 101 rather than to see it go for 96.

19 Mar

Not

An interesting pit stop right at the edge of the big green. The purple dotted path might be redundant by now, but still a very powerful projected rectangle so far. Let's see how this unfolds in the coming days...

22 Mar

Not

hit on the 4th dot. Unfortunately I haven't decided yet to publish this in a new idea because of the level of confidence in the probabilities of the elements that were developed. Friendly reminder for any bulls, there is also the probability of a rebound from the blue rectangle if we even achieve that level. While the heavily optimistic bullish scenario sounds like a dream for any holders, the price action at the blue needs to be carefully analyzed for any clues of what is going on in these dubious times. Gold is rising. Kremlin says we are at war, yet someone out there probably knows where the markets will be 6 months from now. AI will probably render us all obsolete...

9 Nis

Not

Even though I have somewhat rebooted all my biases and projections for this one, this situation in this spot looks worth mentioning, still at the rectangle and at a previously added marked price level. Maybe with some good inspiration will be able to develop a new project for this market during the weekend or the coming week.

9 May

Not

I am not convinced if this action on the bond should make me wonder if the initial blue and red were relevant enough or if something big and/or ugly is about to happen. We end this project here.

17 May

Not

Some resistance met under the blue but this could lead to an incursion towards the green dot, even after a retracement.

3 Haz

Not

A hit and run on the red dot. Resistance could and probably should be met on the upside near 100, but after regrouping we might see higher high.