Unemployment, FED Rates, SPX

5 Eyl 2023

Looks like market bottoms just before the Unemployment peak.
Market peaks just before fed starts reducing the rates.

At the current situation, we have fed fund rates high and also unemployment started to climb.
Will be looking at the unemployment going high and markets roll over and fed cuts rates.

if FED keeps the same rate for long, something in the economy will break and they have to reduce the rate and if it happens then it's already too late.

Looks like CD's and earning ~5% interest on cash is much better than risking for very limited upside in the market.

4 Ara 2023

Not

Unemployment rate is slowly grinding up.

24 Tem 2024

Not

Here we are unemployment is greater than 4%, reason why market is weakening.
Expect unemployment to raise sharp and market correcting or consolidating.

2 Ağu 2024

Not

Yes, unemployment is raising, it will blast off in next 2 months.
Just wait for the first cut, then follows the big bears until rates go below 3%.