$TTD to go below $60

17 Şub

- Investors were paying too much for growth in TTD
- It operates in a very competitive space.
- Leadership is solid however eps growth and gaap eps tells a different story. EPS growth is impressive but gaap eps is terrible. Stock based comp remain consistent but somehow gaap eps isn't growing as fast as non-gaap eps.


- Nonetheless, here's fair value for TTD

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 1.79 | 2.21 | 2.85 | 3.89
EPS growth | 9.54% | 23.13% | 28.92% | 36.66%

For eps growth of 20%+ and company with a moat. Fair forward EPS is 30

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Bear Case ( p/e 20 ) | $35 | $44 | $57 | $77
Base Case (p/e 30 ) | $53.7 | $66.3 | 85.5 | $116
Bull Case (p/e 35 ) | $62 | $77 | $99 | $136

Idea is to buy close to fair value and hold it for period when there is optimism in the market or euphoria and/or valuation expansion where stock is assigned higher forward p/e multiple.

For me, TTD is a buy under $65. However, I have started with a starter position at 80s because you many times good stocks bottom above its fair value.

I plan to build a position in increments because you never know how much stock will undercut on pessimism. However, the above intrinsic value based on EPS should help to identify the ranges

21 Şub

Not

*Fair forward p/e ( not eps)

there was a typo

23 Şub

Not

I don't how come investors were paying an arm and leg for this company. I know it's well run but investors front loaded and expanded earning multiple for it.

Even after 35%+ drop, it's damn too expensive relative to earning growth. :(

7 Mar

Not

I added second lot of shares around $65 and as investor I want to to go below 50s so that I can add more. Let's see!

10 Mar

Not

TTD might consolidate in the yellow box range for some time i.e $40-65

11 Mar

Not

if anyone wants to add it in their longs, consider adding it in increments!

11 Mar

Not

🎯 TTD has entered the consolidation box on March 11, 2025

- $40-50 is a good range to add more to your longs.

15 Mar

Not

- Fintwit community is crying and saying TTD decline is oversold.
- Please hold my beer! TTD had a premium multiple for years because it was growing rapidly but law of large numbers had to kick in at some point.

- This company makes money and product is good. But one should pay close to fair value and sit tight and let them execute so that earning multiple expands and then it's the right time to sell on rosy days when everyone wants the stock in their portfolio.

15 Mar

Not

2025 is the year of accumulation for TTD as EPS has massively compressed and it will expand in the years to come!

27 Mar

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

Now, I will be looking to accumulate TTD for the next year and beyond!

4 Nis

Not

People who want to accumulate a good company for long term. This is the time now! Anything under $50 is amazing

17 Nis

Not

I believe bad news are priced in for $TTD. Time to accumulate it for 2026/2027

1 May

Not

Follow my long trade idea here: