TSLA bearish: Musk vs Trump! Subsidy Spotlight & Sentiment Risks

If you haven`t bought TSLA before the recent breakout:

Now you need to know that Tesla (TSLA) is sitting around $315, but the vibe is getting shakier. Elon Musk’s feud with Donald Trump — complete with jokes about “putting the DOGE on him” if deported — might feel like another meme moment, but it spotlights Tesla’s huge dependency on federal and state support.

Estimates show Tesla could face up to $48 billion in lost government contracts and incentives over the next decade if the political tide turns. With Trump’s base calling out “green subsidies” as wasteful, Tesla’s funding pipeline could get squeezed — just as competition ramps up and margins get tighter.

Key Bearish Points
1) Political Risk Is Real
Musk’s public fight with Trump is a double-edged sword: he risks losing goodwill on both sides of the aisle. If the next administration decides to gut EV credits, Tesla could take a huge hit — far more than its rivals who rely less on U.S. incentives.

2) Subsidy Dependence
Tesla’s success is partly built on a foundation of tax credits, carbon credits, and favorable policies. $48B in potential lost value is nothing to shrug off — especially when competitors like BYD are gaining ground.

3) Bearish Technical Setup
TSLA’s chart is rolling over inside a bearish channel. It recently failed to hold the $330 level and now sits around $315. A clean breakdown below $300 could open the door to your target zone at $262 — a major support area from earlier this year.

Catalysts:
Any new comments from Trump’s camp about EV subsidies
Weak delivery/margin numbers from Tesla
Broader tech/equity pullback
Musk’s crypto distractions no longer propping up sentiment

Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.