Collapse in yields, but equities not getting the love

13 Ağu 2019

It isn't surprising to see the collapse in yields. However, what is a big tell and signal is the lack of buying in equities over the same period.

This would mean there is likely a crowding into bonds for the sake of squeezing out the appreciation (not the yield) and not an interest in using the lower yields in the bond market to buy more equities and take on more risk. This is a warning sign.

13 Ağu 2019

Not

Note, to complete my logic here, you'll need to pull up a chart of the SPY and look at what has happened to US equities during previous collapses in 10 yr yields. Equities have rallied.

13 Ağu 2019

Not

My hypothesis is that it will be time to buy equities when the yield trend changes / bounces.