Taking another LONG ride at 58.61 with TMF (oversold)

23 Eyl 2024

It worked well last time (+11.9% in 7 trading days) and even better the time after that when I FORGOT to trade it - see my last idea for TMF for how that went. So I went long at 58.61 this morning. I'm not missing this train again.

I don't think rates are going up any time soon and neither does anyone else. I think this is a buy the rumor sell the news pullback that is part of a larger uptrend as part of this rate normalization regime by the Fed.

I also think we are getting back to a normal world where the bond market is not so highly correlated with stocks. Given that I think the market may take a little rest this week, it seems like a good time to get in on TMF. Will add more if it stays oversold and will sell lots when they become profitable.

As always, this is market edutainment and a play by play of my trading, not investment advice, and should not be taken as such. Trade at your own risk.

24 Eyl 2024

Not

Down day overall but actually a gain from my entry point, so no adding to the position today.

Holding Lot 1 - 58.61

25 Eyl 2024

İşlem aktif

Added another lot at the close - still oversold

Lot 2 - 57.35

4 Eki 2024

İşlem aktif

Added another lot at 53.64 - oversold again.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64

7 Eki 2024

İşlem aktif

Still oversold so I added a lot at the close for 52.47.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47

9 Eki 2024

Not

Added again at 51.77 - oversold again.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77

10 Eki 2024

Not

Still oversold so I added another lot at 51.08.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08

21 Eki 2024

Not

Added another lot at 47.92 - oversold again

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.92

23 Eki 2024

İşlem aktif

Oversold again so I added again at 47.64 at the close.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.92
47.64

25 Kas 2024

Not

When I said "LONG ride" in my original title, I didn't mean it like this. Today was the first day it's been overbought in 2-1/2 months. I sold the 2 most recent lots at the close today for 48.10, for gains of:

+0.38% in 25 days
+0.97% in 23 days

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08

11 Ara 2024

Not

This is becoming a little bit of a tiresome position. I thought maybe there would be a little bit longer upward push, but no such luck. Oh well. Added again at 47.50.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50

12 Ara 2024

Not

Added again at 45.75. I didn't mean LONG in the title like this...patience is a virtue I guess.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75

13 Ara 2024

Not

It's almost comical how bad the week was for this one - down 10% in just the last 3 sessions. Inflation, feel free to ease up any time now... Hopefully JP and the Gang will decide that this is just a blip and lower rates anyway and everybody gets a little happy time. Until then, I have to keep adding lots.

Added another one at 44.54 at the close. This is why I've switched to FPC in all my other trading. I'm holding 9 lots right now. I'd be a lot more upset about that if I weren't holding 18 of PXS... Have a good weekend! I'm just glad to see this week end.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54

19 Ara 2024

Not

Added a lot at the close at 43.37 yesterday. Sorry for the late update but I was traveling yesterday and just too tired at the end of the day to mess with all this.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54
43.37

19 Ara 2024

Not

Added again at 41.37

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54
43.37
41.37

8 Oca

Not

Added again at 37.98. This one is going to take quite a while to unravel, I think. The interest rate picture is not looking good right now.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54
43.37
41.37
37.98

10 Oca

Not

I forgot to update this on Wednesday, but I sold the most recent lot at 38.14 before the close for a 0.42% gain in one trading day. Today I had to turn around and buy that lot back again for 37.31 at the close. Shame on me for having a little hope after Wednesday. LOL.

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54
43.37
41.37
37.31

13 Oca

Not

Added again at 37.09

Current lots held:
58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54
43.37
41.37
37.31
37.09

15 Oca

Not

You're gonna have to trust me here, since I forgot to update this one yesterday. I added a lot at the close yesterday at 36.98. I sold that lot and the 2 most recently purchased lots before that at the close today for 38.87. The individual lot results are as follows:

37.37 ---> 38.86 = +4.2% in 3 trading days
37.09 ---> 38.86 = +4.8% in 2 trading days
36.98 ---> 38.86 = +5.1% in 1 trading day

Lots still held:

58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54
43.37
41.37

6 Şub

Not

Closed the most recently purchased lot at the close for 43.32 - a 4.71% gain in 28 trading days. It's going to be an important week and a half for this trade and the market overall, as some early signs of a possible recession start to creep into the light. ETFs representing the long end of the curve is coming up against (for example) the downtrend line in place for TMF since the middle of Sept. TLT is facing a similar challenge, and how that resolves itself will determine a lot in terms of this trade and potentially foretell much about the future of the economy as a whole. It's going to get interesting...

Lots still held:

58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75
44.54
43.37

13 Şub

Not

In reality, I should have added another lot yesterday but I screwed up and missed it, so I'm not counting it. Sucks, too, with an almost 5% jump today. But I'm not gonna do anything that makes me look like I even MIGHT be cheating. Plus I missed out on it for real, so that's my double penalty for being sloppy with my trading.

25 Şub

Not

Sold the 2 lowest cost lots today at the close for 45.13. Not celebrating. This trade is now a recession play since that's what will make rates go lower and this higher, and recession means money will get harder to make for me everywhere else. I'll take it, but I'm not thrilled about the circumstances that led to it. They aren't even especially good wins, considering the holding period.

44.54 --> 45.13 = +1.32% in 42 trading days
43.37 --> 45.13 = +4.06 in 39 trading days

Lots still held:

58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
45.75

26 Şub

Not

Sold another lot at the close for 45.88. Would have been better for me if it had fallen a little short today, but oh well. That's how it goes sometimes.

45.75 --> 45.88 = +0.28% gain in 44 trading days. Ick. But still, a profit.

Lots still held:

58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50

21 Nis

Not

Added 1 lot at 37.06 today at the close.

Lots held:

58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
37.06

22 Nis

Not

sold the lot bought yesterday for 37.66 - +1.62% in 1 trading day

Lots held:

58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50

dün

Not

Added a lot at 38.76 at the close.

Lots held:

58.61
57.35
53.64
52.47
51.77
51.08
47.50
38.76