Are bonds (TLT) about to fall?

14 Mar

I've been thinking for the past few months that TLT would rally up to the 100 area. However, that move hasn't materialized and now I think there's a chance of yields rising and bonds falling. Over the past few weeks the chart has morphed more bearish.

It looks like something should set off the bond market this week and cause a lot of volatility in bonds.

I think there's potentially a chance we see the lower supports get hit before we see a relief rally.

Let's see how it plays out.

16 Mar

Not

Also once we get to the 101 area, I think you can pretty much just short TLT for the foreseeable future.

18 Mar

Not

Bought some $88P for 3/28

2 Nis

Not

Ended up flipping bias and bought $101C for 5/16. I think we go up first and then we fall after.

9 Nis

Not

Bottom is in for bonds.