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Bonds Over Gold (TLT/GLD Ratio) - Deflation Fears Rule
When the market fears INFLATION, Bonds go down and Gold goes up, driving this ratio lower.
When the market fears DEFLATION, Bonds go UP and Gold goes down, driving this ratio higher.
We have just finished a major "deflation fear" wave that has failed to make a push during this entire stock market decline in the past 5 days. Since this ratio has stalled out during this stock market slide (5%), I am going to view Bonds as a low risk short sale with specific parameters, to be discussed.
This looks like a normal "wave" of "deflation fears" with bonds dramatically outperforming gold and just a slight underperformance by bonds (TLT) versus gold (GLD) and this ratio will turn down and give a low risk short sale. If the stock market "crashes", then you do NOT want to be short the bonds, as they could rally 5-10 points in a matter of days. Keep your risk in control and low. Use options to manage risk if you fear outright losses from short positions.
Tim 1:23AM EST 10/14/2014
When the market fears DEFLATION, Bonds go UP and Gold goes down, driving this ratio higher.
We have just finished a major "deflation fear" wave that has failed to make a push during this entire stock market decline in the past 5 days. Since this ratio has stalled out during this stock market slide (5%), I am going to view Bonds as a low risk short sale with specific parameters, to be discussed.
This looks like a normal "wave" of "deflation fears" with bonds dramatically outperforming gold and just a slight underperformance by bonds (TLT) versus gold (GLD) and this ratio will turn down and give a low risk short sale. If the stock market "crashes", then you do NOT want to be short the bonds, as they could rally 5-10 points in a matter of days. Keep your risk in control and low. Use options to manage risk if you fear outright losses from short positions.
Tim 1:23AM EST 10/14/2014
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