Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 31 – April 4, 2025

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🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:

🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report: The March employment data, set for release on Friday, April 4, is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with forecasts predicting an increase of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%. This report will be closely monitored for signs of economic momentum and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy. ​

🇺🇸💼 President Trump's Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his "reciprocal tariffs" plan on Wednesday, April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement is anticipated to include a 25% duty on imported vehicles, which could significantly impact the automotive industry and broader market sentiment. Investors are bracing for potential volatility in response to these trade policy developments. ​

🇺🇸📊 Manufacturing and Services Sector Updates: Key indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, April 1, is expected to show a slight contraction with a forecast of 49.5%, down from 50.3% in February. The ISM Services PMI, set for release on Thursday, April 3, is projected at 53.0%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. These reports will provide insights into the health of these critical sectors. ​
MarketWatch

📊 Key Data Releases 📊

📅 Monday, March 31:

🏭 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (9:45 AM ET):

Forecast: 45.5​
Previous: 43.6​

Measures business conditions in the Chicago area, with readings below 50 indicating contraction.​

📅 Tuesday, April 1:

🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):

Forecast: 0.3%​
Previous: -0.2%​

Indicates the total amount spent on construction projects, reflecting trends in the construction industry.​

📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):

Forecast: 7.7 million​
Previous: 7.7 million​


Provides insight into labor demand by measuring the number of job vacancies.​

📅 Wednesday, April 2:

🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):

Forecast: 0.6%​
Previous: 1.7%​

Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, indicating manufacturing demand.​

📅 Thursday, April 3:

📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):

Forecast: 226,000​
Previous: 224,000​

Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into labor market conditions.​


📊 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET):

Forecast: -$123.0 billion​
Previous: -$131.4 billion​

Indicates the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​

📅 Friday, April 4:

💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET):

Forecast: 0.3%​
Previous: 0.3%​

Measures the change in earnings per hour for workers, indicating wage inflation.​

⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.​

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