Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 15, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 15, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

📦 Dow Futures Dip on New Tariff Announcements
President Trump announced new 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, with additional duties on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar starting August 1. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures each slipped ~0.3% as markets assess inflation risk ahead of key CPI data this week

📈 Tech & AI Stocks Lead Despite Tariffs
Stocks like Circle (+9.3%), CoreWeave (+5.2%), Palantir (+5%), Roblox (+5.8%), and Shopify (+4.1%) surged, showcasing sector resilience amid broader tariff fears

⚠️ Deutsche Bank Warns of Summer Volatility
With thin market liquidity and rising geopolitical tension (tariff deadline Aug 1), Deutsche Bank flags summer as a period prone to sudden corrections

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, July 15:

8:30 AM ET – CPI (June)
Core CPI is projected at +0.3% MoM (2.7% YoY) and headline CPI +0.3% MoM—signs tariff effects may be feeding into prices

8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (June)
Expected to come in around 3.0% YoY.

8:30 AM ET – Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July)
Forecast: –7.8 (less negative than June’s –16.0) — a modest sign of stabilizing factory conditions

Fed Speakers Throughout the Day
Watch for commentary from Fed officials (Michael Barr, Barkin, Collins, Logan) for fresh insights on inflation and monetary policy

⚠️ Market Interpretation:

Inflation Watch: A hotter-than-expected CPI could delay anticipated rate cuts and lift yields. A pick-up in core CPI above 3% would be a red flag.

Growth Signals: A less-negative Empire State reading may suggest improving industrial momentum but still signals contraction.

Political Risk: Tariff escalation could shift investor appetite, even if markets right now are focusing on broader macro narratives.

Volatility Setup: The combination of thin liquidity, tariff uncertainty, and critical data makes for a potentially choppy week.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #inflation #tariffs #Fed #CPI #manufacturing #technicalanalysis