The market is at critical support

29 Eyl 2022

I multiplied SPY, DOW, Nasdaq and TLT together to get a broad picture of the state of the US market and have noticed this channel here.

We are now at a critical bounce area established by the covid bottom and 08 bottom. If it doesn't hold this, then to me it would be safe to assume that this decade long trend is over and it will be reshaped into a new trend after lots of pain just like in 08.

I'm obviously hoping for the yellow line to play out, but it will requite lots of competence from the leaders of the banks and the world to get it in that direction, competence that seems to no longer exist.

If you look at raw material charts like steel, wood or even gold and silver, one would assume the deflation goal has been reached. However, the FED's real goal has never been to fight inflation, but to fight low unemployment, because businesses would rather do share buybacks than invest in their employees.
thehill.com/policy/3658981-why-the-fed-is-pushing-unemployment-higher/

And we haven't seen news of mass layoffs yet, or government bailouts of failing companies, so Powell's thirst for homelessness hasn't yet been quenched.

You can also see that CPIAUCSL has flat-lined since May and the last time it did this after a big ramp up was just before the huge waterfall in 08. I'm not sure how much stake to put in that correlation though, since it has only happened once on the chart. It still is something to be concerned about though.

UK has reached their pressure limit yesterday, so there's some bullish news. As the UK starts QE, it should put pressure on Powell to give up his tough guy act after messing up so badly in 2020-21 with the endless money printing.

If this support fails, I think something like this chart I made earlier will be the more accurate one:

This chart uses similar calculations, but instead divides by US10Y instead of multiplying by TLT, this gave me more data to work with, but also changed the chart a little bit to show more bearish possibilities.

But I think this is generally a really safe spot to start going long for a bounce and then just keep a stop below the thick support line. Interestingly, the darker blue line and thick blue line are acting as support at the exact same spot. I always find coincidences like that in charts interesting and to me usually means there's even more support there than just one line.

We can't get 100% bullish until that orange megaphone resistance is broken though, so keep that in mind.

Thanks for reading and good luck out there.

4 Eki 2022

Not

Hi guys, just an update here because the move this morning is a very important bullish move. But I have trouble believing that it'll just be easy from here as this market tends to like to screw with the bears and the bulls at bottoms.



So this is the daily version of my chart and you can see it bottoming perfectly on Friday, which is great news! Now the next challenge it completed was breaking through this daily hull moving average, which acts as resistance in a downtrend. We also have the MACD about to turn and the Stoch about to break out.

Now that it has broken it, I express caution here because this is usually where the bulls start to FOMO in and they may get a good week rally, but then come next week, it all tanks again. You can see previous moves like this in the market where the up arrow is.

For me the next and final most important move is for the price to pull back to this daily hull and see the hull act as support. You can see this where the left arrow points in the chart. This would also correlate with a gap fill, which the MM have an obsession to do. As drawn, I also like to see the supertrend go flat during this process to show consolidation.

No guarantee it'll do this all again since it has bounced at a critical support for the first time, maybe it just keeps going up? A break of the supertrend would force me to re-access this.

Also this move today confirms the RSI divergence that I drew on the 2 Week chart, this is some very bullish support in the indicators.

6 Eki 2022

Not

Another small update here. SPY futures looks like it is about to break this ascending triangle on 15 min. I've found ascending triangles to be bearish patterns in the Biden market, and they usually have appeared on the first short squeeze / bull trap at the bottom. The vix also looks primed for a short run on the 4H chart.



Support target for spy is 3677 as this is previous highs, the gap fill, and you can see the curved double red lines representing the daily hull moving average that should act as support too. If these levels break then the next obvious support is the previous lows.

7 Eki 2022

Not

Ok so it's doing a lot of what I was saying, the support target on SPY has been hit and broke it a little bit, and the VIX has hit my target and tried to break through but was rejected.

I started to buy some bonds at these levels as TLT makes a potential double bottom. And because TLT is making new lows, I think it is now more likely that the market will try for a double bottom. I believe it is also possible for TLT to rally first and pull the market down to that double bottom as this is something I've noticed the market does, but that will only happen if TLT bottoms here. I'm keeping a tight stop, just 5% on the leveraged TMF and am considering also getting TLT with a looser stop as an "investment".

If you are into Elliot waves, I also think that the squeeze we had could be considered a wave 4 and now this pullback would be wave 5 which can become a double bottom.

19 Eki 2022

Not

I apologise for my lack of updates here as I have had the covid, and a strong symptom of covid for me was a lazy lack of interest in charting and trading.

Today is a great day of celebration at the Fed because 1000 souls have lost their jobs at Microsoft. Yes, I can see Powell and his henchmen, reanimated corpses of long expired bankers, dancing on top of the bones of their victims in the printing room, sipping from their golden goblets filled to the brim with the blood, sweat and tears of the common folk. Will this sip satisfy their thirst? Or make them thirst for more? It remains to be seen.

But let’s not dwell on depressing realities and instead focus on charting fantasies.

I got stopped out of my bond trade last Monday and did not perform any trades since then. I completely missed that beautiful gap down and rally last Thursday as I slept through the whole thing, as I woke, the market was already green.

I always did feel that a gap down and rally would be the most ideal bottom as that is how this market tends to like to do things. I believe it is the most optimal because the most amount of people loose and this market is a machine to siphon out the most amount of money from the most amount of people while benefiting the very few. On that day we would have seen bulls getting stopped out and then greedy pigs of bears opening up new shorts as the support was broken. To help get through my fevers, I would imagine the value of their puts by the day’s end.



We now got the market just hovering at my support on the daily and a sustained breakout of the daily hull. We also have a nice upcurve on the MACD and a continued divergence of the RSI. The Stoch is also not overbought, showing that there is plenty of upside energy left. Now I’d like to see the hull start to turn green and act as support.



SPY has largely been playing around at the two key horizontal support positions that I described in my post on the 6th. Most importantly, recently spy has broken out of a shorter-term downtrend seen in orange and it is currently retesting the breakout. I’d like to see it hold this spot at 3670 to remain bullish.
If SPY can sustain a rally, my first target would be 3900 and if it can break past that resistance, the target after that would be 4110. If it gets to 4110, remember almost everyone will be bullish and think the bear market is over. I can’t say if that will be true and I have no honest clue. It will just be hitting strong resistances that have guaranteed a tank fest multiple times, so keep that in mind and manage risk accordingly.



The only problem is bonds. In a sad desperation to keep the market bearish, Powell, the master manipulator, has caused the yields to rally further, turning this typically very bearish wedge pattern into an overshoot. At this point I won’t be surprised it these psychopaths force the 20-year yields to rally to 4.70% until it hits some hard resistance. But who knows? It is an overshoot and they typically end by crashing down. If we get to 4.70% though, say bye-bye to any market rally and hello to homelessness. The Fed’s golden goblets will be overflowing by then.

31 Eki 2022

Not

Beware the bearish wedge on spy, potential down targets are the yellow lines.



We also have DJI hitting resistance.

30 Kas 2022

Not

So the market looks like a pullback is in order and my main interest is how far it will pull back. I believe this pull back will be the most critical move because it will determine if we’re going to be rich or if we’re going to own nothing and be “happy”.

The story to run for this next technical pullback looks like it’ll be the people of China challenging the communist dictatorship that they live in. I think good volume of sales in Black Friday will also be reason to tank the market. But you ask, “this sounds all like good news, right?”

Well remember we’re not in a bull market, we’re in a biden market, it’s the upside-down. So the running gag is that bullish patterns are likely to be bearish, good news is bad news and bad news is good news! Mr. Market don’t like people trying to liberate themselves from modern day slavery because that’s what it depends on. It wants to see more lay offs and less spending!

Another thing that made me more concerned is the election. I wanted to see some evidence of what I’m calling “Voter Capitulation” and I didn’t really see any sign of that during the election. Historically when a president’s term is a total gong show and people are losing money, they typically vote against the standing president’s party in droves. And the Republicans just barley won the house. So basically, Americans looked back on the past two years and thought, “Yeah, this ain’t so bad! Can I have some more?”

This tells me that the average American hasn’t lost too much money yet or not enough to be pissed off, which means Powell’s thirst for blood has yet to be quenched. I remember the market rally at the bottom in the 08 recession as everyone was miserable and jobless… it seems we aren’t there yet.

But this is largely a self-induced recession, like a drug addict that overdosed, so could this time be different? Do we have to go through complete misery like before? I worry that Michael Burry seems to think so, and he is someone that I respect immensely and almost all of his calls have come true so far.



Now looking at my chart, it has ironically followed my bullish line prophecy so far and the first bearish line has failed. Nice! It now has rallied to where I expected it to rally. Then I expected a pullback from here and one that could potentially break the support lines as a final fake breakdown to screw over the last bulls holding. You can see that all three indications look ugly af, all peaking high and curving. Now today it is starting to cross the daily hull which is a final confirmation of a trend change to me.



DJI is interesting as it has broken the key resistance, if one were to just look at the Dow they could logically assume the bear market is over. But going by the upside-down rule, could this be one gigantic fake out? Another worry is if this is a fake out, the other sectors recovered no where nearly as nicely, so that would mean new lows could be in order for those. I’m still on the fence though, I think if the Dow can retest the resistance and bounce from there, then FOMO will go crazy. To me DJI has to hold 32300 to stay bullish.



SPY is making another wedge where it shows me a pull back to at least 374 and potentially lower. As seen, it is not as strong as DJI as it hasn't even broken the resistance yet.

Some good news is bonds have broken that down trend substantially so I believe that because of that movement, the market is going move differently now than how it has moved this year. This'll make it more challenging for both bears and bulls to predict how it'll move in the coming months. I think it would be fair for TLT to test 98 area though.

That’s about it for this rant, good luck to all!

2 Oca 2023

Not

I am starting to consider the possibility that this may be all there is for the broader market pullback and now the market is accumulating before going higher. I have a few reasons for this:



Firstly, on my main chart, you can see that it started to reverse before tapping the trendline. Thinking it would break was the main possibility I was thinking was going to happen but it can bottom by just tapping or barley tapping the trendline. You can also see that the RSI trendline is holding as support and also the MACD is starting to curve.

It may not rally until the hull once again catches back up to the price and then the price breaks it, but the market could be in this range until the hull is broken. Keep an eye out for fake rallies into the hull where they tank later like what happened in early to mid September.

Secondly, my risk on/off chart gave clear warning that risk on was coming, see the latest update in that post for more details. I bought tesla after seeing that and the next day tesla started its rally after everyone suddenly loved the stock again. So with risk on becoming a thing again, it means that the market should be bottomed soon.

The last time that chart signaled risk on was May 11, where you can see the market started a bottoming process until finally starting the big rally in June. So it may not time the absolute bottom perfectly, but it does give some clear signalling to pay attention to.



Thirdly, in my previous post I ended with saying that I think it would be fair for TLT to get to the 98s and now it is in the 99s with a retest of the trendline. Since it rallied higher after my last post, I would expect the retest to be a bit higher than my prediction now too. But you can see this marco support line on TLT, where it was broken in only a few instances and then bought up quickly. This recent overshoot was also quickly bought up with a strong rally back into the trend. Now we retest it again.

There’s also this chart from Fred: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW
If this was any normal company’s balance sheet, the one in charge of finances would be fired!
I’m no economist but, how much longer can Powell lose money like this? Oh, I guess he’ll just invent some new accounting hat trick to deal with this problem.



Finally, that’s right, I even charted CNN’s fear and greed index for you! Where else do you get a service like this? And you can see a wedge being developed with increasing greed as a support. I find this interesting because as the market went lower, investors got greedier. Could this be considered bullish divergence? I was hoping last week that it would tap the 25 area as the market bottoms, so maybe there will be one last flush?

The wedge shape has me a bit concerned if it leads to a bearish breakdown which would be the big capitulation event that the herd thinks is going to happen.



The DOW has retested the breakout and has still held the retest quite well so far. We also got all of the SMMA acting as support now which is very bullish. I also like how both events are happening at the same time. Let’s see what happens when the HULL starts to hit the price.



For SPY, my predicted pullback target happened almost exactly. I now noticed a diamond like pattern being developed. Initially, one would assume it is a flag or pennant, however the wonkiness of the shape looks more like a diamond to me, which is a reversal shape. You can see a similar diamond in action previously that I highlighted, except that was a bearish diamond pattern.

So ya, I think there is a good number of things to be optimistic about here as long as it keeps holding the trend. I’m hoping to start buying some more in these coming weeks, I’m looking at TLT, SPY and TSM as longer-term investments, ZIM, TMF, LABU as a trade, and TSLA as a longer-term swing (I already have “investment shares” of Tesla). I’ve already put the ZIM and TSLA trades in action. Maybe even crypto will wake up from its slumber and have some kind of rally? I’ll have to update my crypto post some time too, but this one took long enough.

Hopefully, this new year will have an unexpected bull run!

2 Oca 2023

Not

Oops I forgot to mention this one other interesting thing about the main chart:



The market found support on this gap fill here. We all know that gap fills are a major turn on for the market makers, so I found it very interesting that a gap in a multiplier chart like this was one to be respected. SPY's gap on the other hand did not act as support and the price went a bit lower and TLT's is far from being touched.

24 Şub 2023

Not

Hi guys, my chart broke a wedge pattern that was forming, I thought we may get one more bounce before a break, but it decided to do it early. This makes me think that the chart will head back to Jan 6th prices, IF it doesn’t reverse back in the wedge by close today or Monday. Not all indexes will be at Jan 6th prices as the weaker ones will bring it down faster.



The big question will be if it holds my critical line as it pulls back, because it will be very ugly if that one is broken.


I noticed some potential good news with the TLT pull back:



You can see that TLT has previously made ascending triangle like patterns at bottoms, breaks it to then form another bottom, and then starts the real rally. So, I’m hoping that this is the very last pullback in bonds before things start to look up again.

It has bottomed at different amounts, sometimes lower, other times higher. This time I’m thinking a likely bottom is around 97-99 as it would be a retest of the important channel support line + the green line.

2 Mar 2023

Not

I have started to buy TLT here.



You can see it hit the green line and is close to the blue one. I don't want to miss this spot if it bottoms early. There is a possibility for a lower bottom at the blue line, then the gap 95.16ish, then even lower at 92.12 if it gets there then I'll be buying some TMF.

I think market could go lower while bonds finds some support here since bonds tanked first.

9 Mar 2023

Not

We may be getting close, maybe a bit more pain. TLT doing well compared to stocks as I thought.
Market could breakdown though if this rally was a big fakeout, could lead to a waterfall. Just know the risks.