SPY Short: A look at Elliott Wave Counts and Fibonacci Extension
Based on yesterday’s move where SPY opened with a new high, I have did a slight modification to the wave count such that I merged the previous wave 3 and wave 4 to become a single wave 3. Note that I do not really like this kind of action and shows bias on my end for preferred wave count. In order to do this, I will have to restudy Fibonacci relationships to ascertain whether it can be done.
Back to this idea itself.
As you can see, I’ve started the cycle wave 5 from 5th Aug 2024 low, and plotted 3 degrees of wave counts:
Highest Intermediate Blue Wave
Middle Minor Green Wave
Lowest Minute Purple Wave
All the waves counts end at the same place: yesterday’s (17th Oct 2024 session) opening high.
I’ve drawn 2 Fibonacci extension levels:
1. Green Fibonacci Level which is internal to Minor Wave 5: Extend Minute Wave 1 against the entire Minor Wave 5 Structure.
2. Purple Fibonacci Level which is a measure of Intermediate Wave 1 against Intermediate Wave 5.
Both Fibonacci levels shows convergence around 586.5 [Green: 586.45; Purple: 586.58] vs the opening high of 586.12. I am willing to accept this for a study of pre-opening shows that futures and CFDs was actually higher than our opening high, meaning target was hit during pre-market.
This is an important concept that an Elliott Waver must remember: the importance of movement of prices outside of regular trading hours (RTH) must be taken into consideration when counting waves and expecting targets.
Back to this idea itself.
As you can see, I’ve started the cycle wave 5 from 5th Aug 2024 low, and plotted 3 degrees of wave counts:
Highest Intermediate Blue Wave
Middle Minor Green Wave
Lowest Minute Purple Wave
All the waves counts end at the same place: yesterday’s (17th Oct 2024 session) opening high.
I’ve drawn 2 Fibonacci extension levels:
1. Green Fibonacci Level which is internal to Minor Wave 5: Extend Minute Wave 1 against the entire Minor Wave 5 Structure.
2. Purple Fibonacci Level which is a measure of Intermediate Wave 1 against Intermediate Wave 5.
Both Fibonacci levels shows convergence around 586.5 [Green: 586.45; Purple: 586.58] vs the opening high of 586.12. I am willing to accept this for a study of pre-opening shows that futures and CFDs was actually higher than our opening high, meaning target was hit during pre-market.
This is an important concept that an Elliott Waver must remember: the importance of movement of prices outside of regular trading hours (RTH) must be taken into consideration when counting waves and expecting targets.
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