Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Remains Under Pressure
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May—still in contraction territory. Tariff-induced uncertainty and rising input costs continue to weigh on factory activity, with new orders still weak and employment contracting

📈 Global Factory Rebound Led by India & Europe
While U.S. factories struggle, India hit a 14-month high in its manufacturing PMI at 58.4, and euro‑zone factory orders stabilized at 49.5—the first sign of recovery in over three years. Asia-Europe divergence may shift global capital flows .

🏦 Powell Says Tariffs Are Delaying Rate Cuts
Fed Chair Powell warned at the ECB forum in Sintra that elevated inflation—driven in part by Trump-era tariffs—has postponed the timeline for U.S. rate cuts. The Fed’s dot-plot now indicates only two cuts for 2025, with markets adjusting accordingly

💵 Dollar Nears 3½-Year Lows
The U.S. dollar weakened further, trading near a three-and-a-half-year low amid soft PMI data, a dovish Fed tilt, and renewed optimism over U.S.–Canada trade talks

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Wednesday, July 2:

(No major scheduled U.S. economic data)

Market focus shifts to upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3, Powell's remarks, and trade-talk headlines.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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