9/23 UPDATED BEAR THESIS $316-317 next stop

23 Eyl 2020

Key points

• The DXY may bounce on resistance as shown
  
• Oil may bounce on support as shown
  
• Bonds remain unchanged as shown
  
• Need to gauge Asia's reaction from our sell off today for confirmation on tomorrows trade
  
  
• For those that don't understand intermarket relationships. From left to right and can start at any point.
  Currency ------> commodities -----------> bonds -----------> Equity -------> currency --------> commodities ---------> bonds -----------> equity.
  
  
• Huge markets reacting to one another, all interconnected, all correlated globally.
  
• Given the circumstances, Spy is sitting in no-mans land right now with a straight shot to 316-317, but given that the DXY and OIL is looking to bounce off support/resistance means its bullish for SPY(meaning a relief bounce is probable, but will only be able to tell at tomorrows open, we need to see how asian markets will react to our sell off today)
  
• The Dollar had a textbook breakout to the upside. When the Dollar rises, equity falls.(not all the time). When Oil loses value ----> spy loses value)
  
• My chart merely shows that OIL is near a support line and that Dollar is near a resistance = Probability of Spy having a relief bounce.
  
• The Risk vs reward is still heavily favored to the bears.
  

24 Eyl 2020

Not

relief bounce playing out nicely from yesterdays call.