$SPY Ugly close - Whats’s next?
Hope this idea is finding you with crazy profits from today’s massive drop. We are looking at the DAILY Heikin Ashi chart.
Chandelier Exit strategy: SELL
- While it is not yet confirmed (we need to see the yellow RSI fall under the blue for a confirmed thesis), we did close at critical 405 support on the SPY today.
Fibonacci Retrace: We closed right at the 0.618 level. I don’t see us hanging around here for long, however. If we see any kind of bounce or retest I believe it will happen at / around the 0.5 or 0.382 levels which coincide around 388 - 396.
Things to keep in mind:
-We are currently trading below all EMAs on the daily (10, 21, 50, 100, 200). That’s not a good sign for the bulls.
-VIX has broken out of the weekly falling wedge pattern and closed above 25. Also bad news for the bulls.
- The DXY (dollar index) is currently either forming a double - top (bullish for SPY) or breaking out of the 109 area. If that happens we will most definitely see further capitulation across all equity markets until the DXY reaches old yearly support from 2001-2003’s dot com era at around $122.
Positions: September is historically a very bearish month. Im currently holding Sept 16 $400 puts on SPY which I took at the peak of this morning around $420. I scaled out 1/2 of them before close today for very nice profits and will look into scaling out further at $400 ; $396 and $388. If we do get a bounce before $400 my stop loss is set at break-even.
Good luck to all
Chandelier Exit strategy: SELL
- While it is not yet confirmed (we need to see the yellow RSI fall under the blue for a confirmed thesis), we did close at critical 405 support on the SPY today.
Fibonacci Retrace: We closed right at the 0.618 level. I don’t see us hanging around here for long, however. If we see any kind of bounce or retest I believe it will happen at / around the 0.5 or 0.382 levels which coincide around 388 - 396.
Things to keep in mind:
-We are currently trading below all EMAs on the daily (10, 21, 50, 100, 200). That’s not a good sign for the bulls.
-VIX has broken out of the weekly falling wedge pattern and closed above 25. Also bad news for the bulls.
- The DXY (dollar index) is currently either forming a double - top (bullish for SPY) or breaking out of the 109 area. If that happens we will most definitely see further capitulation across all equity markets until the DXY reaches old yearly support from 2001-2003’s dot com era at around $122.
Positions: September is historically a very bearish month. Im currently holding Sept 16 $400 puts on SPY which I took at the peak of this morning around $420. I scaled out 1/2 of them before close today for very nice profits and will look into scaling out further at $400 ; $396 and $388. If we do get a bounce before $400 my stop loss is set at break-even.
Good luck to all
Feragatname
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