Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News

Jackson Hole in focus; dollar firms. Traders lean ~84% odds of a 25bp cut in September; watch DXY vs. $SPY/TLT as Powell risk approaches.

Retail baton passes from HD to LOW/TGT. After HD’s hold-guidance rally, attention shifts to Lowe’s/Target for read-throughs on DIY vs. pro spend and tariff pass-through.

Risk tone jittery into minutes. Tech led a pullback Tuesday; positioning lightens ahead of Fed minutes and Jackson Hole.

📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET)

7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Prior: +10.9% w/w (8/13). Why it matters: housing demand pulse → rates/affordability → XHB and growth tone.

10:30 AM — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status. Prior crude change: +3.036M bbl. Why it matters: oil balance → gasoline/diesel → inflation & XLE path.

1:00 PM — U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction. Typical close: 1:00 ET; also 17-week bill today. Why it matters: term-premium & risk appetite; tails/stop-throughs can shake $TLT/$TNX.

2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (July 29–30). Watch for: depth of cut debate, tariffs → inflation, labor cooling. Why it matters: reprices path-of-rates across curve and equities.

Earnings (before open): LOW, TGT, TJX, ADI (+ others). Why it matters: U.S. consumer & capex reads; category mix shifts. Lowe’s call 9:00 AM.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #FOMCMinutes #JacksonHole #DXY #TLT #XLE #LOW #TGT #TJX #ADI