SPY PROJECTIONS

15 Mar 2022

I'm really curious if this week will just flush down to begin this typical bottoming pattern. It was very stuck on Monday, and gave a sign like it was looking off the edge of something but not stepping forward. The real volatility could be just about to jump into the half pipe. My projections change because as the picture evolves, it gives a clearer picture. I'm making small intraday trades right now, but no big size. I do futures so I'm short a handful on the SP500 through about 4000. Then I think we'll have a strong reversal that gets shut down into the final thrust. This pattern is typical of a day trading chart, but to see it on this scale is always incredible. I still think we're in the final leg of a Wyckoff distribution. I think in April we'll turn and run toward 6000. Not because it makes sense, but because everyone is so bullish. Tech stocks like Rivian are overvalued by a lot, but Tesla is showing growth that is starting to bring down it's multiple and in a couple more years earn it's valuation if not increase it. Amazon is splitting and buying back, to drive more buying. Someone said once that 60% of this first 1.5 year leg was correlated to corporate by backs alone, which are at record levels. So, FAANGMAN, or some version of it with Apple killing it and Tesla killing it, and Amazon killing it, I just don't see war and temporary supply issues stopping this beast. Even FED support (the other 40% of bullishness) isn't going to just be pulled out. Markets usually keep going up after pricing in interest rate hikes, historically.

I think small cap and stuff like ARK funds will start to show some nutty volatility and start going up prior to the big indexes. So, late March we'll know. My yellow drawn line on here is really just for myself. I like to visualize expectations based on historical prices and volume profile to set targets. Good luck everyone. We ain't at the bottom yet. It has to feel a lot more dangerous before it rips shorts hearts out and feeds them to us bulls.