Expects further consolidation within 2.5-year range near term

6-26-16
SPY @ 203.13 - bearish – Expects further consolidation within the 2.5-year range near term

SPY stalled at the 212.52 resistance area (June 6, 2016 YTD high), just shy of the 213.78 all-time peak (May 18, 2015). Subsequent 3-week decline probed the 3-month 202.78 range support (May 16, 2016 weekly low), suggesting near-term failure to challenge the tough 213.78/212.52 2.5-year range resistance area. With the technical readings turning downwards, there is scope for further downside momentum towards 196.95 (38.2% of the 181.02/212.52 upswing (January 18, 2016 YTD low/June 6, 2016 YTD high)) next.
However, if the 202.78/202.72 zone near the 50-week moving average contains the consolidation, the index could moving sideways for a while. Only a decisive break through the 213.78/212.52 zone would complete the 2.5-year range consolidation and turn bullish on the market for new highs.

Outlook:
Intraday: bearish
Daily: bearish
Weekly: bearish
Monthly: neutral