Spy

27 Eyl

Look for a pullback here to 560-562 next week minimum.. too many red flags showing right now.

The biggest is flag is NYA which represents the broader market then just the S&P 500
Closed at the top of a wedge with a reversal candle .. I expect a pullback to support thena final bounce higher around mid October I expect a wedge flush and bigger correction.. So this pullback to support should align with Spy move down to 560


Dow jones grinding in a broadening wedge.. finished with a reversal candle also friday.. look for a move down to 41,000 next week


It's been a long time since I've seen so many sectors and indexes flashing red. One of the most reliable tools prefer to use is the price range; this tool measures the distance between the stock or indexes candle from its 20sma moving average.
Here's an example.. notice how when Spy gets 3% extended from its 20 the last few times it pullback there.. also daily moneyflow has went too overbought.



I'll go over QQQ and tech sectors tomorrow..



Overall we are just talking about a pullback before a final leg higher before mid October

28 Eyl

Yorum

Qqq 4hour chart and 3hour RSI both pointing to resistance



A close below 486 and 471 is incoming with a pit stop at 477.. I was very surprised they didn't go for the 496 gap pm Micron earnings but as I said on X we were opening up at sector resistance across the board. Imagine Qqq a car, and the sector are important parts to that car (Transmission,engine, Etc).

I'll lay out the 4 biggest sectors and what I see.

XLY (Tsla and Amzn)
If you notice Amzn really struggled above 190 and although tsla did see new highs this week I think for the short term 261 will be a brick wall.

XLY is outside its weekly bollingerband, when a sector goes outside its weekly bollingerband you don't want to be exposed or swinging longs.

Pushed up to its 1yr trend resistance and daily money flow has lit up here at 200.00

Look for a pullback to 194 and below that 188.


SMH (Nvda, AMD,TSM)
Not as overbought as the rest of the market.. price rejected at 255 double top neckline but closed on channel support.
Will be a wait and see here what happens, as long as channel holds them chips will prop but 250 is resistance.. if channel breaks down then 230 comes and chips flush lower. So as you saw friday how chips led the nasdaq lower, now that they've hit support they won't lead the drag unless channel breaks



XLK
Msft and aapl.
Similar to SMH , XLK is not as overbought and Like QQQ and SMH, XLK has closed on its support after rejecting resistance Thursday. Until channel breaks price will remain in a tight range and chop



Looking at from a larger perspective, until QQQ breaks 486 we are inside the channels and unless we gap down Monday tech will prop until job numbers are released..

Besides Amzn,tsla and meta, most tech and sectors arent overbought just stuck at resistance. Dow jones and NYA are more overbought . But remember what I said about the price range tool?

When QQQ tagged 494 Thursday price extended almost 5% from its 20sma and as you can see below Qqq normally doesn't push higher than 5% before retest of 20sma


Right now resistance is 490-491
Support 485-486

Price can play in those ranges until the levy breaks

29 Eyl

Yorum

Lastly is the Vix..

Weekly candle finished with a hammer and a bounce off the 50 and 20 moving averages.


Daily chart is showing a falling wedge and strong bounce off its daily 200sma
Think we get a gap close at 18.50 , pullback then a final gap close at 22

4 Eki

Yorum

So all indexes Dow, spy and QQQ tagged their 21ema this week and bounced .. Weekly candle is showing a spinning top. (INDECISION)... Let's see what happens into the weekend