So looks like we got a pretty decent reversal day today across all indices after a triple top/attempt to break through the $294/2940 area on the 5 min and a double top on the daily.
For SPY we're resting directly on trend line support for price and RSI, again. But the daily is an bearish engulfing pivot candle, but on low volume. So i'm not that convinced. It looks like we're just range bound between $280-$295. We did fill the gap at ~$287.50, but we still have a gap at $283.50, $273, $248, and the one around the lows at $222. Keep in mind we still have the gap above at about $304 as well. This is what i think has been the target so far, but the last week or two we have still seen selling into strength with the overnight traders gapping us higher and 0 volume during the cash session. This is corroborated by the CICO now into negative territory, but price still moving upwards. But this is also the largest down move we've seen since April 20th.
My targets still stand. I feel like we're going to fill the gaps below before either a break downwards to plumb a new low or to repair some of the market structure below before we continue back higher to ultimately challenge the Feb top. This will 100% depend on the data over the next 6 months. Will the economy bounce back? I highly doubt it. But we also have the Fed stimulus which could be a catalyst for a further melt up until things really crap the bed.
Today's Daily Pivot on Spy
SPX
IWM got whacked today at almost a 4% loss. The RUT and by proxy the IWM in my opinion are leading indicators
VIX is showing a healthy reversal on the daily as well with a 20% move.
NDX, still on historical trendline support
DJI
For SPY and SPX we'd have to break $280/$2800 on the downside in order to have any shot at anything lower. If not we're going to be range bound until we get a news driven break. This all needs to be confirmed with an uptick of volume and follow through from the bears.
Keep your head on a swivel and happy trading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
For SPY we're resting directly on trend line support for price and RSI, again. But the daily is an bearish engulfing pivot candle, but on low volume. So i'm not that convinced. It looks like we're just range bound between $280-$295. We did fill the gap at ~$287.50, but we still have a gap at $283.50, $273, $248, and the one around the lows at $222. Keep in mind we still have the gap above at about $304 as well. This is what i think has been the target so far, but the last week or two we have still seen selling into strength with the overnight traders gapping us higher and 0 volume during the cash session. This is corroborated by the CICO now into negative territory, but price still moving upwards. But this is also the largest down move we've seen since April 20th.
My targets still stand. I feel like we're going to fill the gaps below before either a break downwards to plumb a new low or to repair some of the market structure below before we continue back higher to ultimately challenge the Feb top. This will 100% depend on the data over the next 6 months. Will the economy bounce back? I highly doubt it. But we also have the Fed stimulus which could be a catalyst for a further melt up until things really crap the bed.
Today's Daily Pivot on Spy
SPX
IWM got whacked today at almost a 4% loss. The RUT and by proxy the IWM in my opinion are leading indicators
VIX is showing a healthy reversal on the daily as well with a 20% move.
NDX, still on historical trendline support
DJI
For SPY and SPX we'd have to break $280/$2800 on the downside in order to have any shot at anything lower. If not we're going to be range bound until we get a news driven break. This all needs to be confirmed with an uptick of volume and follow through from the bears.
Keep your head on a swivel and happy trading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
