SPY-SHORT-UPDATE
SPYSPY has completed a 5 wave sequence.
-Wave 1 & Wave 5 Extended
-Correction Wave B went above the terminal point of Wave 5.
-Elliot calls this an irregular correction and can be subject to "Double Retracement". Double Retracement corrects Wave 5 and then the whole wave sequence.
I don't think we could see a double retracement due to economic conditions.
Chart:
Catalyst:
1. White House
2. Geo-politics
Will update.
-AB
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Potential Headline Catalyst Down:1. Kavanaugh
2. Mueller
3. Midterms
4. Big Tech - Breaking News about Data Collection methods by FB, TWTR, and Google.
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Irregular corrections usually appear after wave 5 of a cycle, and would correct the entire five waves according to Elliott’s approach to this phenomenon. The first move after the end of wave 5 would be a three wave affair and is labeled as Wave A. The Wave B that follows will also be in three sub waves but the price will exceed the top of Wave 5. Thereafter, we will get a normal Wave C made up of five sub waves.Not
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Wave 5 extension= 16.47%Not
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A bad storm is brewing.Not
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Prior Super Cycle Correction was a Flat.Not
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We are in the beginning of a new Super Cycle.Not
Other headline catalyst: -FISA Declassifiation
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Implemented an Put option strategy to protect portfolio.Not
Looking ready to drop...Not
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New Headline about to drop?Not
Narratives matter...Not
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These Sub-Waves will provide the bigger picture.Extending S-3?
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Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be completed.Not
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Wave Analysis and Fibonacci are used the same when going down.Not
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Extending Sub-Wave 3Not
Reminder: Extending Waves = Impossible to know what level they stop.Not
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4.618 is a key level for me.Not
If we break 4.618, support starts around $250.Not
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So far, not good sub-wave 3 traveled over 320% of S1 & S2.Not
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Double Retrace:1. Retrace Extension
2. 5th Wave Sequence
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No signs of finding support...Not
Reminder: Wave A & Wave B Sub-Wave were both shown in the WEEKLY chart!Not
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We are clearly at an inflection point in history. Do we continue with an old Fiat money system?
Do we continue to let a privately held bank govern monetary policy?
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What caused the last ‘recession’?Not
“The real cause of the Great Recession lay not in the housing market but in the misguided monetary policy of the Federal Reserve” - “The Fed can control NGDP through its monetary policy, and as NGDP fell in 2008, the Fed should have lowered interest rates rapidly. If that proved insufficient, it should have increased the money supply through quantitative easing. Instead, the Fed, terrified of inflation, kept interest rates too high for too long—causing NGDP to fall even further.” -
Source: ForeignAffairs.com
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Bogey Man - InflationNot
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If 270 is broken, next stop is 250.Not
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Still got more to go...Not
S3 Extended Wave A was 3
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Friday: Correction SequenceMonday: S5
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66 Days to form Wave ANot
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170 days to form Wave BNot
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$240 looks to be the Terminal Point of the correction.Not
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Correction will not be completed until AFTER 2019.Not
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Best SHORT: wait till S2 completes and short higher degree Wave 3Not
Clarification: Correction will not be completed until Jan. 2019.Not
Wave 2 Terminal projection: $288Not
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S1Terminal Projection: $273Not
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Timeframe: Not
S5 Complete: Oct. 18Not
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Yellow = Lower Degree Teal = Higher Degree
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We need to watch higher degree Wave 5 very carefully and be on watch for "Double Retracement."Not
Don’t fall for the head-fakeNot
S5 still needs to be completedNot
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S=sub-wavesNot
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Here comes the reversal...Not
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Not sure what the headline will be or maybe it’s an earnings report but this will fade in After-HoursNot
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Netflix? Pop and Drop?Not
Will Netflix pop hold?Not
Netflix is still in a Correction...Not
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Here comes wave 2 back upNot
Sub-Wave 5 hit target exactlyNot
I would use this rally to exit any positions you don't want to hold before Wave 3 down begins...Not
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Wait till $282 then Short.Not
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Looks like we WILL see Double RetracementNot
Wave 1:Sub-Wave 3 Extended
Sub-Wave 5 Extended
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Wave 5 Extension Target is between $259 & $255Not
Double Retrace is in PlayNot
Don't Sell here! Wait for Wave 2 to get out of any position you don't want to hold.Not
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Pretty Confident Wave 1 is complete...Not
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Indicators look goodNot
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.618 is the Key HurdleNot
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Election Day?Not
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5th Wave will be a big test...Not
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Complex Correction implies a strong move higher.Not
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$284 is a key level.Not
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Starting to fail...Not
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Watch for the reversalNot
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Wave 2 hit target almost exactly...Not
Target was $282.Not
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Above: The Turn.Not
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SPX Chart is a little scary!We have clearly completed Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4.
We are in the 5th Wave...
The question is are we more towards the beginning of Wave 5 or more towards the end?
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Above in Pink shows the most recent Wave Sequence.Not
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260-250 are Critical LevelsIf Broken look to 210 for support...
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S1 is going to be tested.
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Doesn’t look good...Not
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Note Wave A. Wave C needs 5 sub-waves.
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Very inclined to double retrace...Probably nothing will be safe...
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Sub-Wave 5 is a tell to double retrace...Not
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If Sub-Wave 5 breaks S1 & S2 in meaningful way we will likely see new lows.Not
Buckle up...New Lows imminent...
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Wave C Time Est. = 210 days...Not
Shaping up to be a real blood bath...Not
What brand new market is forming? Where is the money going?
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$218 Target for Double RetraceNot
Russell MAY be ok...HOLDMJ Stocks MAY be ok...HOLD
TSLA looks ok..BUY
Inverse short ETF...
Inverse Correlation SPY equities:
1. Micro Cap Equities
2. Some Biotech
3. Blockchain/Digital
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Zombie/Corrupt Companies must either fail or clean houseNot
Fed?Not
On life support?Not
Fed engineered economic collapses instead of expansions...FACTNot
If I’m right about SPX (All-Time Chart) we can go a lot lower than 218.Not
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$1,338...Not
Wish I could make this more digestible but...it is looking pretty bad!Not
The ONE glimmer of hope...Sub-Wave 1 Extended (Yellow Box)
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Sub-Wave 2 only retraced .382 of Sub-Wave 1, could this imply the higher degree wave will extend as well? Possible.Not
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Think I solved it....382 = $2,056.93
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Yea, very high degree of confidence $2,056.93 will be the bottom.Not
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If .382 Fails we will see $1,338.The World is Changing...
FAST!
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Strongly encourage portfolio protection or move to the side lines...Not
Indicators: All ugly...Not
Volume Disappearing? Makes you wonder...
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Current support (Green Spirals)When they break, the market will take sharp leg lower....
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Closing Idea...
Please visit most recent idea...
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Feragatname
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