$SPY Bear Fake or Storm Clouds?

There is so much bearish & bullish activity/indicators within the S&P index right now.

The TA can be confusing at these times. I have been pump faked 3 times at these prior fib ratios - just saying this next one could be the one however I will wait for confirmation before I go guns blazing into a short.

• Moving Averages look bullish
  
• MACD can still be bullish for awhile longer
  
• RSI looks very overbought
  

You can see in this chart below how it is moving 1 standDev away from the sma consistently for about two months now. I would anticipate this to normalize soon and when it does it will fall out of that upper wedge.


Here is a clean view of just the fibs


Just on the sidelines myself as I don't want to go long unless this thing is at 2830 nor do I want to short prior to confirmation.