SPY: Update for Week of March 17

15 Mar

Hey everyone,

A bit of a longer idea, but I had lots to talk about about, I guess.

Here is the summary information for next week:

Summary

• Most likely high target 568.21 (probability assigned 18%)
  
• Most likely bear target 552.74 (probability assigned 64%)
  
• Retracement target 557 (probability 71%)
  
• Expected return -0.11% (very conservative this week interestingly enough).
  
• EMA 200 average target 533 range
  

Weekly Levels



Weekly Forecast




Thanks for watching and reading and as always safe trades! 🚀And not advice!🚫

18 Mar

Not

As of right now the forecast is incredibly mixed.

The possibility it shows is an upside to 584 or downside to 548.
SPY rejected the EMA 200 retest and ES1! also did 3 rejections during market and Asia session.

Projections for tomorrow are actually bearish.

No advice at this time as things are pretty mixed, but obviously FOMC will set the tone and is what one should be watching IMO.

Safe trades!

18 Mar

Not

Likely seeing 559 today, when that breaks, 557 is in the forecast for today.

19 Mar

Not

I will do a pre FOMC udpate.

Based on the chart, expectation is a gap up into tomorrow.

FOMC is predicted to be bearish, but we'll see what happens.

If it is bearish we would be looking for 556 to the downside.
Upside targets not sure with the impending gap up.

I think that's it for now!

Safe trades!

21 Mar

Not

Hey everyone,
Been pretty quiet with the ranginess, so nothing really much to update.

SPY broke down from this little pennant thing before close but the volume was not convincing:


So I don't expect it to be a true breakdown and I expect we continue to range.
Tomorrow I do expect us to break over 570, based on projections, but not that it is bullish or bearish, just very low volume, no real buying or selling.

Sellers remain in the lead from a volume composition point of view but buyers are kind of stepping it up.

The setup was very identical to 2022's initial decline, I pointed that out before and many others have. However, we were pretty wrong about the outcome. I figured we were either going for a major 5 to 8% bounce or a continuation down, but, ofc, in SPY fashion it ranges haha, doing the most damage to both bulls and bears.

PA has gotten a bit challenging even for me, but hopefully we can eventually breakout of the rangy zone.
Theoretically a break of 570, which is the expectation tomorrow, would be a breakout. But breakouts and breakdowns don't exist with SPY. SPY is in a world of its own, and trying to apply these technical things don't work.

Good luck everyone! And safe trades!

21 Mar

Not

Oh man its over for the break of 570, but expect incredibly whipsaw with quad witching :O.