Bear Cases
Güncellendi
Who would miss out on a chance to laugh at a guy predicting a market top? So A few months back I said we would reach the little green box on the chart. We are all but at that point now, so now what?
---First off, I think the bull runs on if we break above the upper red trendline and hold above it for a week or two.
--Secondly, market's just don't crash overnight, nor do they ring a big ole bell saying the top is in, they're near unpredictable.
-- I'm pretty confident that we have to finish the "E" leg of this ABCDE correction though, and there is a couple ways we could get there:
White: This "no volume" pop above new highs today, is a big red flag that triggers a bunch of selling very shortly. July gets a little hasty, the fed comes to the rescue with some rate cuts, and we get a solid bounce. Down we go from there. The one thing I don't like about this is, the advance/decline line normally fails to make new highs on tops, hasn't done so yet. Maybe a quick drop and retest before a drop here.
Pink: More of a bullish inverse head and shoulders set up, where we were just in a correction faze and the bull continues on. A fail to reach the lower trendline, confirms a strong bullish move higher.
Yellow : We see a little "copy cat" of last October, by trying to retest old highs, but we fail on the news that the fed wont cut rates. The yellow line does feel extreme, but the reason for that is the bold red line. That trendline has been major support for this ENTIRE bull market. Typically when those types of trendlines break, they are very impulsive. I wouldn't consider a 10-15% correction off that trendline impulsive especially considering the major impulsie up the markets have had off of it.
*As Always, this is not trade recommendations, do your own analysis!*
---First off, I think the bull runs on if we break above the upper red trendline and hold above it for a week or two.
--Secondly, market's just don't crash overnight, nor do they ring a big ole bell saying the top is in, they're near unpredictable.
-- I'm pretty confident that we have to finish the "E" leg of this ABCDE correction though, and there is a couple ways we could get there:
White: This "no volume" pop above new highs today, is a big red flag that triggers a bunch of selling very shortly. July gets a little hasty, the fed comes to the rescue with some rate cuts, and we get a solid bounce. Down we go from there. The one thing I don't like about this is, the advance/decline line normally fails to make new highs on tops, hasn't done so yet. Maybe a quick drop and retest before a drop here.
Pink: More of a bullish inverse head and shoulders set up, where we were just in a correction faze and the bull continues on. A fail to reach the lower trendline, confirms a strong bullish move higher.
Yellow : We see a little "copy cat" of last October, by trying to retest old highs, but we fail on the news that the fed wont cut rates. The yellow line does feel extreme, but the reason for that is the bold red line. That trendline has been major support for this ENTIRE bull market. Typically when those types of trendlines break, they are very impulsive. I wouldn't consider a 10-15% correction off that trendline impulsive especially considering the major impulsie up the markets have had off of it.
*As Always, this is not trade recommendations, do your own analysis!*
Not
Feragatname
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