S&P500 Long Call Vertical 66% Probability Of Profit

12 Mar 2021

I've played yesterdays some S&P500 with vetical spread.

(1) RSI in the middle zone

Any direction is possible



(2) Forming a bullish triangle - again



Similar cases in the past one year:



(3) There is a little more space to the upside



(4) Relative Implied Volatility is low



So I'm choosing a debit strategy.


CONCLUSION:

I'm using LONG CALL VERTICAL -

Buy 1 SPY April16' 375 Call
Sell 1 SPY April16' 380 Call
Debit call spread for 4.12 debit

Probability of Profit: 66%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 21%
Max profit: 88$
Max loss at expiry: 412$ (Buy Power)
Max loss with my risk management: ~95$
Tasty IVR: 4.8
Expiry: 36 days

Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $379

Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order. (at 4.56 credit)


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31 Mar 2021

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

Trade closed at target profit in 2 weeks.
10% profit on my capital.