Short-term bounce: SPY/ES/NQ, 10/4-10/8
Short-term(1-2 day) swing bias: Long (~5.0 point target)
Medium-term swing bias: Short (retest of 429 and likely new minor swing low)
Friday was a ripe opportunity for strong selling as a continuation of the enormous down volume leading into end of the week. What began as a panic bar morphed into a reasonably strong reversal midday. Bulls became increasingly aggressive as price cracked 430, ultimatlely resulting in a 2% rotation up from the lows.
Bearing in mind that that most evidence suggests at least a few new swing lows are on the Oct horizon, I like a modest long here if you can actively manage the position.
Not only is a 2% rotation below average, but we're also sitting on the 100 day SMA, and reversing off one of the last congested zones that I can imagine bulls taking a major shot at before we see deeper pullbacks. Many traders would have shorted these levels in Jul/Aug, ultimately getting trapped as we ripped through the ATH on a daily basis, so it's reasonable to expect a confluence of break-even covering and profit-taking here.
My target is modest - 5 points at the most for a fat position - and while there's no question this could be the start of an ATH run, I'd need to see much more confirmation before building a serious swing position long. At this time I'm comfortable shooting for a single bull bar, average day's range, tight stop, and then reassess after gauging the reaction at the 440 level - the breakeven point for bears who positioned in time for this giga rip.
Best of luck my frens
Praise VISA
-Pan
Medium-term swing bias: Short (retest of 429 and likely new minor swing low)
Friday was a ripe opportunity for strong selling as a continuation of the enormous down volume leading into end of the week. What began as a panic bar morphed into a reasonably strong reversal midday. Bulls became increasingly aggressive as price cracked 430, ultimatlely resulting in a 2% rotation up from the lows.
Bearing in mind that that most evidence suggests at least a few new swing lows are on the Oct horizon, I like a modest long here if you can actively manage the position.
Not only is a 2% rotation below average, but we're also sitting on the 100 day SMA, and reversing off one of the last congested zones that I can imagine bulls taking a major shot at before we see deeper pullbacks. Many traders would have shorted these levels in Jul/Aug, ultimately getting trapped as we ripped through the ATH on a daily basis, so it's reasonable to expect a confluence of break-even covering and profit-taking here.
My target is modest - 5 points at the most for a fat position - and while there's no question this could be the start of an ATH run, I'd need to see much more confirmation before building a serious swing position long. At this time I'm comfortable shooting for a single bull bar, average day's range, tight stop, and then reassess after gauging the reaction at the 440 level - the breakeven point for bears who positioned in time for this giga rip.
Best of luck my frens
Praise VISA
-Pan
Feragatname
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