spy: Expects further consolidation within the 2.5-year range

SPY @ 206.52 - bearish – Expects further consolidation within the 2.5-year range near term

SPY stalled at the 212.52 resistance area (June 6, 2016 YTD high), just shy of the 213.78 all-time peak (May 18, 2015). Subsequent decline via a spinning top reversal pattern suggests bears are back in control. It is likely to see a retest of the 202.78 prior low (May 16, 2016 weekly low). Further weakness below the latter would open 200.55 (38.2% retracement of the 181.02/212.52 upswing (January 18, 2016 YTD low/June 6, 2016 YTD high), and then 196.85 (50% of the 181.02/212.52 upswing).
If the stock is able to retake the 212.52 level decisively, that would stabilize the structure and extend the price action towards 213.78. A clean breakout there would complete the 2.5-year range consolidation and turn bullish on the market for new highs.

Outlook:
Intraday: bearish
Daily: bearish
Weekly: bearish
Monthly: neutral