Is it a top? I doubt it

15 Oca 2015

My analysis is pretty much 3 fold here. 1. The weekly chart on the left is showing momentum confirming the high, which indicates a bias toward another high. I like to see momentum divergence at tops. The October low is a significant level to watch if broken, however. 2. The daily chart on the right at the moment appears like 2 ABC patterns, so a corrective pattern could be completing, but that's not my short term bias. With price poking around near the mid December levels, my bias would be to take that 198 prior low level out where there are probably some technical stops sitting, before reversing. My guess is a reach to 194-196, or just enough to make some of the weak stops panic. 3. With momentum coming off a weekly extreme, the market does need to simmer down. Additionally, to setup for the expected divergence, momentum needs to come down enough that it won't be able to make the new high next time prices does. What makes the most sense to me is a period of sideways after reaching the a near term low in the coming week or two. The sideways market action will bring that weekly momentum down, sort of like storing potential energy to spring up for another advance. People get the most excited when they start reading financial news about "market volatility" meaning a correction, or about new highs, but the fact is the market is usually not trending, so be ready for some consolidation.
I have other reasons for thinking this isn't the start of a major correction, but I want to keep this post purely based on chart.