SPY: Reversal or Continuation? Nov. 18, 2024
SPY) is rebounding after a sharp sell-off, with price approaching critical resistance levels. With strong volume near recent lows, it’s a crucial moment for traders to watch for breakout or rejection opportunities. Here’s a detailed trading plan for scalping and swing setups.
Technical Overview:
Market Structure:
Trend: SPY remains in a short-term downtrend, but the current bounce from the lows indicates potential bullish momentum.
EMA Levels: The 9 EMA (purple) and 21 EMA (blue) are converging, creating a dynamic resistance zone near $590.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zones:
$594.50 – Immediate resistance aligned with EMA confluence.
$601.00 – Psychological resistance and key supply zone.
Support Zones:
$583.00 – Current support zone where buyers stepped in.
$580.00 – Critical demand zone and psychological support.
Supply and Demand Zones:
Demand Zone: $580.00–$583.00, where buyers have shown strong interest.
Supply Zone: $594.50–$601.00, where sellers have consistently stepped in.
Indicators:
MACD: Shows bullish divergence, with momentum building on the histogram.
Volume: Increased green volume bars indicate growing buyer interest near $583.00.
Pattern:
Potential inverted head and shoulders forming, signaling a possible reversal if $594.50 breaks.
Game Plan:
Scalping Plan (1-Min and 5-Min Timeframe):
Entry for Long:
Buy if price breaks above $594.50 with strong volume.
Target 1: $598.00 (scalp to mid-resistance).
Target 2: $601.00 (supply zone).
Entry for Short:
Sell if price rejects $594.50 or breaks below $583.00.
Target 1: $580.50 (psychological support).
Target 2: $580.00 (demand zone test).
Stop Loss:
Long: Below $593.00.
Short: Above $595.50.
Swing Trade Plan:
Bullish Scenario:
Buy if price holds above $583.00 and breaks $594.50.
Target 1: $601.00 (supply zone).
Extended Target: $610.00 (potential breakout level).
Stop Loss: Below $580.00.
Bearish Scenario:
Sell if price fails to hold $583.00 and breaks below $580.00.
Target 1: $570.00 (next demand zone).
Extended Target: $560.00 (potential lower low).
Stop Loss: Above $584.50.
My Thoughts:
For Scalping: Watch for a breakout or rejection at $594.50 for momentum trades. The volume profile near $583.00 suggests strong buyer interest, so tight risk management is key for shorts.
For Swing Trades: Price above $594.50 could signal a bullish reversal, while failure to hold $583.00 opens the door for further downside.
Directional Bias:
Short-term: Neutral-to-bullish if $594.50 breaks with strong momentum.
Mid-term: Slightly bearish unless SPY reclaims $601.00.
Actionable Suggestions:
Use the $594.50 resistance and $583.00 support as key levels for entries.
Focus on volume and price action at these levels for scalping and swing setups.
Avoid trading within the $583.00–$594.50 range to reduce noise and increase risk/reward.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management when trading.
Technical Overview:
Market Structure:
Trend: SPY remains in a short-term downtrend, but the current bounce from the lows indicates potential bullish momentum.
EMA Levels: The 9 EMA (purple) and 21 EMA (blue) are converging, creating a dynamic resistance zone near $590.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zones:
$594.50 – Immediate resistance aligned with EMA confluence.
$601.00 – Psychological resistance and key supply zone.
Support Zones:
$583.00 – Current support zone where buyers stepped in.
$580.00 – Critical demand zone and psychological support.
Supply and Demand Zones:
Demand Zone: $580.00–$583.00, where buyers have shown strong interest.
Supply Zone: $594.50–$601.00, where sellers have consistently stepped in.
Indicators:
MACD: Shows bullish divergence, with momentum building on the histogram.
Volume: Increased green volume bars indicate growing buyer interest near $583.00.
Pattern:
Potential inverted head and shoulders forming, signaling a possible reversal if $594.50 breaks.
Game Plan:
Scalping Plan (1-Min and 5-Min Timeframe):
Entry for Long:
Buy if price breaks above $594.50 with strong volume.
Target 1: $598.00 (scalp to mid-resistance).
Target 2: $601.00 (supply zone).
Entry for Short:
Sell if price rejects $594.50 or breaks below $583.00.
Target 1: $580.50 (psychological support).
Target 2: $580.00 (demand zone test).
Stop Loss:
Long: Below $593.00.
Short: Above $595.50.
Swing Trade Plan:
Bullish Scenario:
Buy if price holds above $583.00 and breaks $594.50.
Target 1: $601.00 (supply zone).
Extended Target: $610.00 (potential breakout level).
Stop Loss: Below $580.00.
Bearish Scenario:
Sell if price fails to hold $583.00 and breaks below $580.00.
Target 1: $570.00 (next demand zone).
Extended Target: $560.00 (potential lower low).
Stop Loss: Above $584.50.
My Thoughts:
For Scalping: Watch for a breakout or rejection at $594.50 for momentum trades. The volume profile near $583.00 suggests strong buyer interest, so tight risk management is key for shorts.
For Swing Trades: Price above $594.50 could signal a bullish reversal, while failure to hold $583.00 opens the door for further downside.
Directional Bias:
Short-term: Neutral-to-bullish if $594.50 breaks with strong momentum.
Mid-term: Slightly bearish unless SPY reclaims $601.00.
Actionable Suggestions:
Use the $594.50 resistance and $583.00 support as key levels for entries.
Focus on volume and price action at these levels for scalping and swing setups.
Avoid trading within the $583.00–$594.50 range to reduce noise and increase risk/reward.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management when trading.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.