Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

📊 Core Inflation Edges Higher
May’s core inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.6%, casting uncertainty over the Fed’s timeline for rate cuts. While headline CPI sits at 2.3%, the resilience in underlying prices complicates policymakers’ projections for later this year

💵 Weak Dollar, Rising Rate-Cut Bets
Markets are reacting to “summertime data”—like the core CPI uptick—with renewed optimism. Traders now see up to 75 bps in Fed rate cuts later this year, while the dollar remains near 3½-year lows on concerns about Powell’s independence and trade developments

🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Resume
Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada restarted today, following Ottawa’s suspension of its digital-services tax. Progress toward a broader agreement could reduce tariff risk and offer further relief to risk assets

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, July 1:

All Day – U.S.–Canada Trade Talks
Markets will watch for updates on tariff resolution and broader trade deals. Any breakthrough could notably boost equities and improve trade sentiment.

10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
A below-50 reading again would reinforce the narrative of industrial weakness. A rebound could support equities and temper recession concerns

10:00 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (May)
Still at elevated levels (~7.39 million in April), this metric assesses labor-market resilience. A decline could shift rate-cut expectations.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.

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