Contrarian count

Everyone has become uber bullish on the mkts...want to provide a contrarian...or otherwise a realistic alternate count on SPX that I see playing out. if we break the pivot pt indicated by the yellow arrow then a down move is confirmed...cannot guarantee the actual downside tgt will be hit, but the upside move would be over and atleast this huge run since early Oct will be fully retraced...I think the larger move since Nov 2020 could be retraced....this larger retracement is what is driving my tgt at the lower levels.