SPX500usd Wave-4 ELLIOTT triangle ?

26 Mar 2022

This chart is a zoomed out version of my previous post. If I am wrong, the expected pullback may only retrace the around 4435-ish level) and then move up to ATH. However if price overlaps the previous wave top at level 4420 that overlap may be the first signal the market is weak and may not find support and move lower. So look for a 3 wave correction and carefully monitor the market closely at this point. IF no support is found look a deeper pull back and a possible triangle pattern as shown.

27 Mar 2022

Not

Again, I am currently LONG but as the market takes a breather to rebalance (whether it ends up a little sub wav-4 or within first WAVE-1 or a bigger triangle formation) the risk of going in long at this point seems to be high and I feel comfortable taking % profits from the securities luckily bought at the bottom, with an eye toward long set-ups and rotation WHEN & IF the market continues higher this cautious approach to work its VERY important to buy back in of course. But if the market does turn lower, I am able to rotate and go short with more flexibility. I find with this strategy I miss little or even gain if the market goes higher as you suggest. If you just went in LONG this week holding may be your best option with a stop just above your purchase price.. I am not a financial advisor and no one can offer you advice unless they know you time frame and you unique situation.

Average Seasonality is calculated over decades, but most importantly to the seasonality rule is there are pivotal years break the trend completely (these are generally washed in the averages) but they are there and are perhaps the most important in term of profit years. Maybe 2023 with the geopolitical War, Inflation spiking, Bond market collapse and intertest rate will turn out to be boring non-eventful "normal seasonal year” but to be frank I am being very cautious. January is seasonally a strong month (well it wasn’t), March is looking strong so let’s see. Seasonally April is the strongest of the year...but is this a "normal year" ??? Good luck I hope you make lots of money.