SPX / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES

9 Ağu 2023

This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas.

| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |


In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > SPX500USD <

• We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.

• As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.

• This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: "SPX / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES" (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels)

• Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it.

How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated?




MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)

• The all-time high of 2022, is only 4.56% away from the current top, which is scary in terms of the economic situation.

• The overvaluation of stocks has reached a point where the fall will result in a hard landing.

• The institutions and central banks know this and are currently delaying disaster.

• From a technical perspective, we are below / at the mid-trend line of the overarching uptrend channel.

• From a subordinate perspective, the price has broken out of a recent trend channel and has not had enough momentum on the reconfirmation.

• Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, a small bearish divergence can be seen in the daily TFs.

• There are a lot of support areas standing in the way of a serious sell-off, which would have to be broken first - both scenarios are thus not to be ruled out | LONG / SHORT.

Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z

| ZielIstDieAutarkie |

If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.

Thank you and happy trading!

Z

9 Ağu 2023

Not

1-MONTH - INTERVAL


2-WEEK - INTERVAL


1-WEEK - INTERVAL


1-DAY - INTERVAL

14 Ağu 2023

Not

WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.

> The "CLOSE" occurred below the last "Market Structure Break (MSB)" which now serves as support.

> The re-break into the MTF trend channel, was confirmed via this weeks close.
> The MTF trend channel midline, continues to serve as a resistance stad and achieved several reactions in the past.
> Additional support is provided by a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past.

The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending processing:
= 0.75 - 0.786 (4435.7 - 4427.5 USD)
= 0.328 (4416.3 USD)
= 0.88 (4406.2 USD)

> The "SUPPLY - ZONE" above it continues to serve as resistance.
> The MA (20, 50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5 = 4508 USD, 8 = 4488 USD) - serve as resistance.

> The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a bearish cross.
> The RSI indicator confirms falling momentum is always near the 50% = Neutral territory.


1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)


OVERVIEW

20 Ağu 2023

Not

WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting 
= it should be noted that the subordinate market structure was broken - which allows further room to fall.
 
> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trendline was confirmed as resistance last week.
> We are experiencing additional resistance from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and confirmed in the ITD.
> The next HTF support is the uptrend channel center line, which is very likely to prove itself this week.
 
 
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4329.40) | 0.618 + 0.65 (4234.10 - 4251.90)
- MA | 20; 100 (4320.00 & 4200.00)
- POI | 4325.00 & 4200.00
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2) 
 
RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4443.60)
- MA | 5; 8 (4475.00)
- MSB | MTF = HH/23 (4463.4) 
 
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator is close to a bearish cross, which indicates the beginning of negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 50% line, showing very incipient bearish momentum.
 
 
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)

 
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)

27 Ağu 2023

Not

WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the wick of the candle has a greater length than the shadow cast by the candle.

> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose centerline still leaves further correction potential open.
> We experience additional resistance from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was double confirmed as resistance in the ITD.
> The next HTF resistance is the "Higher High" of 2023 (4463.4), which was confirmed as resistance with this week's close.


SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (4329.40) & 0.328 (4207.30) | 0.618 + 0.65 (4234.10 - 4251.90)
- MA | 20; 100 (4320.00 & 4200.00)
- POI | 4334.00 & 4200.00
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2) & HH/23 (4194.2)

RESISTANCES
- FIB | HTF = 0.618 - 0.786 (4503.4 - 4550.0) ) | ITD = 1.618 (4551.9)
- MA | 5; 8 (4475.00)
- MSB | MTF = HH/23 (4463.4)

INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator has completed the bearish cross, confirming, from the momentum, the down sale.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 50% line, confirming it as resistance.


1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)


(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)

3 Eyl 2023

Not

WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH

> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.

> The MTF trend channel, continues to serve as a resistance stad and could be tested as resistance next week.
> We get additional support from a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past. (= was recaptured)


SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 + 0.88 (4472.6 - 4360.4)
- MA | 20; 50; 100; 200 (4482.6 & 4447.0)
- POI | 4469.6 & 4490.0
- MSB | MTF = LH/23 (4325.2) & HH/23 (4194.2)

RESISTANCES
- FIB | ITD = 0.75 - 0.88 (4539.9 - 4576.2 ) & 1.618 (4551.9)
- MA | NONE
- POI | 4550.00 & 4580.00 & 4600.0
- MSB | MTF = LH/22 (4636.0)

INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a bearish cross.
- The RSI indicator confirms that falling momentum always goes near the 50% neutral area.


1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)


(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)

5 Eyl 2023

Not

MONTH - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the candle has an extreme shadow, highlighting the buying pressure, and only a very small wick.

> The candle broke back into the HTF uptrend channel, again rendering last month's breakout moot.
> The lower high of 2022 (4636.0) serves as the next very strong resistance and should show a reaction in the (intraday / weekly).
> Should the sell-off continue, the Lower High of 2022 (4325.2) in combination with several HTF-FIB levels, comes into play again as support.


1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)

17 Eyl 2023

Not

WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> the candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the wick of the candle is longer than the shadow cast by the candle = seller strength

> Trying to recapture the previous down-sale, we received a Strong down-sale with the USD news released on Friday, which is reflected as a "Bearish Engulfing" pattern on the daily chart.
> We get additional resistance from a Parallel Trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (Turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past. (= was confirmed as resistance)
> The weekly and daily candles suggest a continuing down-sale.
= regarding this, a separate INTRA-Day short idea will be published tomorrow


SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart picture.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.

RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.

INDICATORS
> The MACD indicator confirms falling momentum and is close to a continuation of the falling momentum.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.


1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)


(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)