🕰️ Daily Chart | May 21, 2025
🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
After a sharp retracement and subsequent rally, the S&P 500 Index (
SPX500) is now facing overhead resistance near the 0.886 Fib retracement (~5,875-5,953) from the previous swing high.
🔍 Technical Overview:
Confluence Resistance: 5,875–5,953 zone (0.886 Fib)
Micro W-Pattern Setup: Pullback expected to 5,640–5,700 before a potential higher low sets up a breakout.
Bull Targets:
6,182 (1.236 Fib ext)
6,512 (1.618 Fib ext, potential exhaustion zone)
🧠 Macro + Volatility Context:
Monetary Policy: Fed remains data-dependent. July rate cut odds are increasing, but the market remains bifurcated between sticky services inflation and weakening real GDP prints.
Bond Market: Yield curve remains inverted. A breakout above 6,182 will likely need bond volatility (MOVE index) to stabilize under 100.
Global Flow Risks: Continued capital inflows into U.S. equities amid geopolitical hedging, but China liquidity injections and BOJ FX defense add noise.
🛡️ Risk Management Notes:
Pullback Zone: 5,640–5,700 = high-conviction buy zone (0.5–0.618 retracement of last impulse)
Invalidation: Daily close below 5,573 or breach of 5,475 = reassess long thesis.
Position Sizing: Favor partial scaling-in with tight trailing stop until breakout confirmation.
📌 Strategy Summary:
We are watching for a tactical pullback into the golden zone followed by a measured continuation toward 6,182+ if macro tailwinds align (i.e., dovish Fed tone + improving liquidity metrics). The setup mirrors late-cycle rallies and should be monitored alongside bond yields and dollar strength.
⚠️ Patience > Chase. Let the W structure play out.
—
🔗 #SPX500 #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #Wavervanir #SMC #RiskManagement #TradingViewAnalysis
🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
After a sharp retracement and subsequent rally, the S&P 500 Index (
SPX500) is now facing overhead resistance near the 0.886 Fib retracement (~5,875-5,953) from the previous swing high.🔍 Technical Overview:
Confluence Resistance: 5,875–5,953 zone (0.886 Fib)
Micro W-Pattern Setup: Pullback expected to 5,640–5,700 before a potential higher low sets up a breakout.
Bull Targets:
6,182 (1.236 Fib ext)
6,512 (1.618 Fib ext, potential exhaustion zone)
🧠 Macro + Volatility Context:
Monetary Policy: Fed remains data-dependent. July rate cut odds are increasing, but the market remains bifurcated between sticky services inflation and weakening real GDP prints.
Bond Market: Yield curve remains inverted. A breakout above 6,182 will likely need bond volatility (MOVE index) to stabilize under 100.
Global Flow Risks: Continued capital inflows into U.S. equities amid geopolitical hedging, but China liquidity injections and BOJ FX defense add noise.
🛡️ Risk Management Notes:
Pullback Zone: 5,640–5,700 = high-conviction buy zone (0.5–0.618 retracement of last impulse)
Invalidation: Daily close below 5,573 or breach of 5,475 = reassess long thesis.
Position Sizing: Favor partial scaling-in with tight trailing stop until breakout confirmation.
📌 Strategy Summary:
We are watching for a tactical pullback into the golden zone followed by a measured continuation toward 6,182+ if macro tailwinds align (i.e., dovish Fed tone + improving liquidity metrics). The setup mirrors late-cycle rallies and should be monitored alongside bond yields and dollar strength.
⚠️ Patience > Chase. Let the W structure play out.
—
🔗 #SPX500 #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #Wavervanir #SMC #RiskManagement #TradingViewAnalysis
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.