Best time in two decades to buy the S&P 500. Breakout of 200 SMA

10 Mar 2016

The most painful part of the short squeeze may be yet to come. Because Mario Draghi positively surprised more than the market expected and impressed with a big move by cutting the main refinancing rate to 0.0 percent and rather than buying only eurozone government bonds the ECB is extending its monthly asset purchases to bonds issued by non-bank corporations.

This will lead to a breakout beyond the 200 day simple moving average and increase the short-covering rally so much that we might see a new all-time high instead of a dead cat bounce. Thereby my bullish scenario has a increasingly higher probability to play out. Especially because historically the US stock market rallied a lot starting around 3-6 months after the first FED hike and we are now already at month number three. See: twitter.com/SPYder_Crusher/status/677211160991555584

And we have according to Goldman Sachs a 21% chance that the "S&P 500" rallies 5% according to fundamentals (source of my headline title)
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-07/goldman-sachs-sees-best-time-in-two-decades-to-buy-s-p-500-calls

I also see the "Crude oil" and "China" markets at a bottom as mentioned before and now I also see "Apple" at a bottom with the price being back above USD100.

Long-term long
Entry: Below 2000 points
Stop loss: 1888 points
1. Target: 2300
2. Target: 2600

LINKS

Stock gains continue after initial rate move
fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/first-rate-hike

The most painful part of the short squeeze may be yet to come
zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-05/most-painful-part-short-squeeze-may-be-yet-come-jpm-warns

ECB takes bold steps to stimulate eurozone economy
nytimes.com/2016/03/11/business/international/ecb-draghi-europe.html


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