Major cyclical S&P 500 top imminent . . . ?

29 Eki 2013

UPDATE: So far the weekly and monthly TD stops of 1817 and 1835 are holding as coincident daily, weekly, and TD sell signals perfect the week of Nov 25 (or one more close higher than the high two days before hereafter). Thus, the implication is that the cyclical bull market within an ongoing secular bear market is coming to an end. It's time to sell and step aside longs for the next 12-16 months.

UPDATE: The SPX just touched 1808, which is the exponential order of magnitude from the 666 low. Is that it?

The monthly TDST stop is 1835.

UPDATE: A close above TDST resistance for the Mother of All Mothers TD sell signal is above 1835 (1817 weekly). SPX 1809 is an exponential order of increase from the Mar '09 low of 666, which is the same scale of increase from the 1932 low to 1937 when adjusting the SPX after 1933 for the 40% decline in the US$.


hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131111.htm

hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131118.htm

Since '11, the SPX has exhibited successive Sornette-like super-exponential, log-periodic accelerations of compounding doubling times of 30-34 weeks, with the most recent acceleration falling to a doubling time of just 24 weeks. We are witnessing among the rarest bubble blow-off trajectories ever for the SPX, but the Bernanke-Yellen Fed and Wall St. claim there are no bubbles anywhere.

Who knows how high the SPX goes hereafter and for how long the cyclical terminal blow-off lasts. Be careful.

UPDATE: The Mother of All Mothers of cyclical stock market sell signals perfected today. Now the question is whether or not the algobots will take out the weekly and monthly stops at 1817 and 1835.

Moreover, there are only three other periods in US stock market history when Oct. YTD matched or exceeded the performace in two successive years as in '12 and '13: 1928, 1936, and 1989, with the former two periods preceding the largest stock market crashes in history before 1973-74, 2001-02, and 2008-09.

Suffice it to say, we are witnessing among the biggest stock market blow-offs in world history, exceeding even the manic markets in 1999-2000 and 2006-07.

And no Fed economists, central banksters, Wall Streeters, nor financial media pundits will admit that there is a bubble or that anything could or should be done to have prevented it or to deflate it hereafter.




The S&P 500 has reached the EW 1:1 projection zone for the moves from 666 to 1219 and from 1011 to 1370, which is occurring with a mega-bearish 9-13-9 monthly TD Sequential Sell signal having perfected in Sept. with a weekly 9-13 and possible 9-13-9 TD Sell Sequential Sell signals qualifying in the next two weeks.

A correction to the S&P 500 1300s is likely hereafter. Were a secular bull market to have begun in Mar. '09, which seems unlikely given valuations and demographics, a correction to the 1300s would be followed by higher highs in the 1900s-2100s.

However, a decline to the 1300s followed by a rally to the 200 DMA that fails and rolls over would also conform to an initial decline in a larger bear market that could take the index to the 1000s to 800s-900s (monthly TDST support levels) into fall '14 to early '15. Were the secular bear market to be intact, the next cyclical bear market decline could be a highly destructive wave c of C that resolves the secular bear market in 3 or 5 waves, or a complex pattern lasting into the early '20s.