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dkh
15 Eyl 2017 21:30

Set-Ups for 9/18/17 - Straddle it 

S&P 500 index of US listed sharesFXCM

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OK sports fans what we saw at one minute till End of Day was a hardcore bid to make 2500 which was met by an equal amount of offers. It was a goal-line push at the one yard line. So what does this tell us? Almost absolutely nothing! Hurricane hits and hurricanes coming - no effect. Missiles flying over Japan - nothing. Bomb goes off in London subway - nothing. So let us conclude that 'headline risk' is off the table. Let us also conclude that 'economic data risk' is off the table. Fed policy risk - off the table. Geo-Political risk - off the table. Currency risk - off the table. Bonds flattening - who cares. Credit default risk - who's listening. Case Shiller PE at 30.6 - an oldie but goodie. Price is truth and time is the ultimate keeper of that truth. So what do we do now? We straddle it! The range going into 9/18 will be 2494.4 - 2506.5 so you can place your bets inside the bars short term or outside the bars for medium term. Use the strategy you are most familiar with and feel comfortable executing and do it in small bites. Look for a break in the range before committing more money to a direction.

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roxananechita
Yes, this is crazy how it continues to go up and up and up, like Dow too... Nothing stops them...
dkh
@roxananechita, on a monetary policy basis it is not crazy. Based on surpassing 20T debt the Central banks are now in end-game mode with someone in the White House that is not on their side. You just have to put yourself in their shoes (game theory) and see the choices they have. In their rational self-interest it is better for them to assign excess reserve deposits to the market makers in a bid to provide market liquidity and to provide additional leverage on capital assets. This all works so long as the market goes higher and will cease to work if credit defaults begin to grind away at bank reserves. We have no way to know where the line in the sand is, but we know it's there.
roxananechita
@dkh, I am thinking also as today was index futures and options expiry date (in fact quadruple witching), that might have been the reason for the price action this week and today... hedge funds and institutions manipulation?! We will see next week if the market stays at these levels... both SP and DJI made new highs and Nq100 traded in a higher range.
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