Several patterns and indicators on this chart tells me that the top of the monstrous move from the 1820ish swing low hasn't been meet ..... yet. Rudolph still have some strength left to bring Santa all the way to the chimney top at around 2073ish where his nose will turn ...red. I see the following patterns: A green Gartley 5.0 pattern A yellow Andrew pitchfork A fib extension at 1.272 from 2019 swing high to 1820 swing low On the indicator side I see the following: A Trix / Fisher system (nmike & JR system) almost ready to role over... but not quit yet A macd about to cross over and a histogram on 0.41 ....almost there...but not yet. A Woodies CCI that's still green and still above +100
I'm neutral and in cash right now. Time will tell.... as always Safe trading ladies and gents and a merry christmas for all traders out there!
I continue to observe increased negative divergences between stock prices to rise and indicators that I follow. The sharp rise in recent weeks was parabolic and left several "gaps", days when the indices opened to a value higher than the previous day's closing leaving a space. The parabolic ascents do not end well and this will be no exception. There relevant gaps in the S & P500 in 1905 points, the Dow Jones in 16,401 points and the Nasdaq 100 in 3872. This tells me that the indices will fall substantially in the next relevant decrease for at least these values, then possibly exceed the minimum of 15 October.
The S & P 500 has strong resistance at 2,094 points and the Dow Jones in 18,300 points, the indices can not reach these levels.
The reversal may begin soon, problably in the beginning of January 2015.
CoinedByCrypto
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Thank you very much for your comment in which I very much agree in the substance. Yes to many gaps that needs to be filled ....at a certain point. I see them as exhausting gaps due to the - as you also mention - parabolic ascent . Timing is always of the essence. Weather or not we have a quiet Christmas and then all hell break loose.... i'm not sure. I more see many patterns lining up and support each other for the bearish case. For me the 2073/4 is the line in the sand before the jaw of death (Gartley 5.0 pattern - also known as the megaphone pattern). We might go sideways for a couple of days with a lot of chop and then after the coming weekend ... a drop could be eminent. One last thing... The Richmond Manufacturing index and the CB Consumer Confidence could be first crack in bulls fence. (I know the figures are not trustworthy, but this are the ones we are given) so therefore the ones we can trade of.)
A-shot
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I could not agree more, and i would add that i barely entered the market now. My strategy said buy already half way up due to the gas. But i do not enter on gap days that easily...and now i have divergences all over the markets, not only US. But until Jan 2015 prices have to go somewhere...im really amazed that so far we never had even a bump - straight up. I tend to use the lesson i learnt and sell the greed/confidence. But at the same time, markets tend to stay irrational longer than you can imagine.
A-shot
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BLawrenceM
I agree on the megaphone, but note that it is weaker with each iteration as more and more people see it. The bull will be tested, but i fail to imagine how far we can go if the megaphone breaks to the upside...IF it ever breaks...price can go up even within that resistance line. But about the reason for it to drop....well, they will always find one. I find it weird how Ebola faded fast ...
CoinedByCrypto
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:) We on the same curve.... ;) If the bankster let this market fall .... a black swan has probably just passed by. The bears would be all over the place.
A-shot
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You know what... i rather sell Before that, cause i sense after would be way down.
A-shot
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I.e. i dont like to pare losses, i prefer to take winnings
CoinedByCrypto
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Latest charts on ES: gyazo.com/8f9c498697525203055da69f1374b1ee and this; gyazo.com/79c9f30b01d5e01884ed8953c0b862fc Due to only a 38,2 retrace I see a possible alt 4 and 5 could come in play. Not saying it will but keep an eye on the waves down. If only a 3 wave down or pennant during the trading day. It's probably an alt wave 4 and 5 in play.
The S & P 500 has strong resistance at 2,094 points and the Dow Jones in 18,300 points, the indices can not reach these levels.
The reversal may begin soon, problably in the beginning of January 2015.